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More on Thailand, Cambodia and Thaksin

I’ve updated my earlier post about Thailand, Cambodia and Thaksin, but I wanted to add the latest news in a new post for RSS subscribers.

First, today’s development: Thailand has threatened to close the border with Thailand. Here’s an AFP story with more info.

And second, I wanted to point out some analysis from Reuters. The headline is “Thaksin launches new offensive to win back power.” Here’re the first few graphs:

His opponents may dismiss him as a fugitive criminal and a spent political force, but ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is redoubling his efforts to return to power in Thailand, and the government is stumbling.

His red-shirted supporters have been pushing for a royal pardon of his corruption conviction, which would allow the exiled billionaire to come home. Now Thaksin has raised the stakes with a series of moves likely to add fuel to an intractable crisis in Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy.

His acceptance of an offer to become an adviser to the government of neighbouring Cambodia has caused an ugly diplomatic row, with the prospect of his running a political campaign from across the border angering the powerful opponents who have fought hard to keep him at bay.

“The government is being seen as incompetent and we’re slowly moving towards becoming a failed state,” political scientist Pitch Pongsawat said. “Thaksin wants to steal the show … and we’re headed for a whole different battle.”

(Emphasis mine.)

I suggest reading the whole thing.

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Thailand, Cambodia, and Thaksin

First this:

AFP: “Cambodia makes Thailand’s Thaksin adviser: government

Cambodia said Wednesday it had appointed fugitive former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra economic adviser to premier Hun Sen in a move that adds to tensions between the countries.

The appointment was announced on state television almost two weeks after Hun Sen first riled Thailand by offering safe haven to Thaksin, who was ousted in a coup in 2006 and is living abroad to avoid a jail term for corruption.

And then this:

New York Times: “Thailand Recalls Its Ambassador to Cambodia

The Thai government announced Thursday that it was recalling its ambassador to Cambodia to protest Cambodia’s appointment of Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted as Thailand’s prime minister, to a high-profile position. The moves put new strains on already tense relations between the countries.

Mr. Thaksin was removed in a coup in September 2006 and now helps lead the Thai opposition movement from abroad.

The Thai Foreign Ministry said the appointment of Mr. Thaksin as economic adviser to Cambodia’s prime minister represented a “failure to respect Thailand’s judicial system.”

“The Royal Thai Government cannot stand idly by and has to take into consideration the sentiment of its people,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. The Thai government appears particularly dismayed at the idea that Mr. Thaksin, who now spends much of his time in Dubai, might be able to galvanize his supporters from just across the border. Hun Sen, the Cambodian prime minister, has offered Mr. Thaksin a residence in Cambodia.

And now this:

Reuters: “Thailand, Cambodia recall envoys over Thaksin spat

Thailand and Cambodia recalled their ambassadors from each others’ countries on Thursday, deepening a diplomatic row after Cambodia made fugitive former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra an economic adviser.

The tit-for-tat spat threatens to worsen a political crisis in Thailand by giving Thaksin and his red-shirted anti-government supporters an ally just across the border, causing a diplomatic embarrassment for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

It also suggests deepening enmity between leaders of the two countries after Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen soured the start of an Asian summit hosted by Abhisit last month by turning up and offering Thaksin the job of adviser.

(Emphasis mine.)

Watch this space…

UPDATE (Fri., 3:30 p.m. local time): A development from AFP: “Thailand threatens to seal Cambodian border.”

Thailand threatened Friday to seal the border with Cambodia in a spiralling diplomatic row over Phnom Penh’s naming of fugitive former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra as an adviser.

The warning came a day after the two countries recalled their respective ambassadors due to the dispute over the appointment of Thaksin, who was ousted in a 2006 coup and lives abroad to avoid a jail term for corruption.

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Thai PM Abhisit, Thaksin, and wrangling over the national police chief

Thai PM Abhisit Vejjajiva
Thai PM Abhisit Vejjajiva

An important political story in Thailand at the moment is the ongoing tussle over appointing a new national police chief. Here’s a summary of what’s happening — and why it matters.

First, some background: Thailand’s police force became a highly politicized body during exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra’s 2001-2006 tenure. Thaksin himself was once a cop, and many high-ranking police officials are still loyal to the billionaire.

PM Abhisit came to office in December, 2008, of course, after prolonged anti-Thaksin protests, which culminated in the seizure of Bangkok’s airports by anti-Thaksin yellow shirt protesters.

Abhisit is now attempting to replace the current police chief, who is seen as a Thaksin ally and is due to retire at the end of Sept. Abhisit has selected his own man in the job.

But there’s the rub.

Various parties in the police force and elsewhere are blocking Abhisit’s move, part of a power play to bring another man — also Thaksin-linked — to power as the new chief. We’re currently at a deadlock: The naming of a new chief has been postponed indefinitely.

Here’s an AFP story about the current state of affairs. And here’s an article from the Bangkok Post with more details.

For a more in-depth look at the issue, I suggest reading political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak’s Sept. 9 Bangkok Post opinion piece, “Public played for fools in police power plays.” And Bangkok Pundit has some recentl analysis here.

Why is this saga important? And what does it mean for Thailand’s political future?

The wrangling is important because it reflects the government’s general disunity and PM Abhisit’s inability to impose his will on Thailand’s own national police force.

In addition, the in-fighting comes at a time of nervousness about a pro-Thaksin red shirt rally scheduled for Sat., Sept. 19 — the third anniversary of the coup that toppled Thaksin.

In order to curb potential unrest, the government has imposed an Internal Security Act that allows the military — in addition to the national police — to patrol the Bangkok district where the demonstration will take place. Red shirt leaders say they expect 20,000-30,000 protesters to take part. Here’s an AFP story with more info.

Abhisit’s perceived weakness, and worries about violent protests or a military crackdown, has led to rumors that a military coup could take place. PM Abhisit is due to leave on Sunday, Sept. 20 — the day after the planned rally — to attend the UN general assembly and G20 meeting in the New York. Thaksin was overthrown in 2006 while he was in New York for a UN meeting. But in this story from the Bangkok Post, Abhisit says he thinks “there’s no reason for a coup.”

This Reuters analysis piece provides some perspective: “Rumours are swirling about a military power grab, but in a country that has undergone 18 actual or attempted coups in 77 years of on-off democracy, this is nothing new.”

Stay tuned…

UPDATE (Sept. 17) — The Bangkok Post has a new opinion piece on the affair (“New twist in police drama”) that concludes with this interesting line: “Thai-style poltics is not only unique but also always ”simply amazing”.”

Indeed.

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The Economist on the state of Thai politics

A story in the current Economist sums up the political landscape in Thailand.

Discussed here are PM Abhisit, the red shirts, the yellow shirts (and the PAD’s new political party), and the insurgency in Thailand’s south. Worth a read.

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Thailand protests: three observations

Tens of thousands of red-shirt (anti-government) protesters descended on Government House here in Bangkok today to demand that Prime Minister Abhisit step down. I spent a few hours there speaking with demonstrators and taking in the scene.

Some observations, a few of which I mentioned in various tweets earlier today:

  1. The crowd was so large that it was difficult to negotiate the area. Some estimates put the number of protesters at 60,000 or even 100,000. It was so crowded near the main stage, for example, that it took me twenty minutes to move a distance of just a few hundred meters. It was difficult to walk around in many areas due to the volume of people.
  2. Emotions were running high. Speakers gave impassioned speeches. The crowded chanted. And sang songs. And rattled plastic clappers.
  3. While the overall mood was pro-Thaksin, some people told me they were there to demand democracy, not necessarily to support the exiled PM. Signs read “We want democracy,” “Return the power to the people” and “Where’s the justice?” Many people wore shirts that read “Truth today: it’s time for change in Thailand.”

    One man, a 34-year-old taxi driver from Bangkok, told me that he didn’t like Thaksin, in fact, but that he wanted a change in government. “I want democracy but I didn’t come for Thaksin,” he said. “I want democracy…I don’t like Abhisit. He came to power not through democracy.”

For ongoing updates the protests, you can search Google News or consult the Bangkok Post or Nation newspapers.

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Thai PM’s car attacked by protesters

Two developments here in Thailand today:

First, Thai PM Abhisit Vejjajiva’s car was attacked by ant-government red-shirt protesters in Pattaya this afternoon. It was the first violence targeted at Abhisit since he came to power in December. Reuters has the story.

And second, tension is mounting ahead of a massive red-shirt rally planned here in Bangkok tomorrow. Abhisit has vowed to prevent a “civil war.” The AP has this story.

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WSJ: Thaksin “ups ante,” calling for “people’s revolution”

Today’s WSJ has this story: “Thaksin Ups Ante In Thai Struggle

BANGKOK — Thailand’s fugitive former leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, has picked a fight from which he may find it hard to back down — and which economists say could hinder this Southeast Asian economy’s efforts to recover from the global slump.

Mr. Thaksin on Friday rejected the Thai government’s offer of talks to resolve political conflicts. He told his supporters — who are barricading the main government complex in Bangkok — to prepare for a “people’s revolution” in defense of democracy.

“Negotiation is out of the question. We are talking about the nation’s future now,” Mr. Thaksin told cheering supporters in a live video link from an undisclosed location overseas. He urged people to turn out for a mass show of support in Bangkok on April 8.

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Thai government offers talks with Thaksin

Reuters: “Thai govt seeks talks with Thaksin to end protest

BANGKOK, April 1 (Reuters) – Thailand’s government offered on Wednesday to negotiate with exiled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to end a week-long street campaign threatening its efforts to stave off an economic recession.

The offer was swiftly rejected by a leader of the pro-Thaksin group that has surrounded Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s offices in Bangkok to force him out, the latest escalation in Thailand’s three-year-old political crisis.

“Our objective is to remove them. Why would we talk to them?” said Jatuporn Prompan, a leader of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), an extra-parliamentary group that accuses Abhisit of being a pawn of the military.

Police have taken no action against the thousands of red-shirted protesters despite a court order on Tuesday that they allow ministers to enter Government House.

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said the government wanted to avoid violence and he offered talks with Thaksin, who has exhorted his supporters to “bring back democracy” in nightly video speeches from an undisclosed location.

“If talks can bring peace to the country, I am ready to meet him anywhere, because Thaksin is the only person that can end the siege,” said Suthep, who is in charge while Abhisit attends the G20 Summit in London.

There’s also a story from the BBC and one from the FT. And here’s one from VOA about politics and the Thai economy.

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Abhisit at Davos: Thaksin should return to Thailand

Hong Kong blogger Thomas Crampton ((You’ll recall that he also recently interviewed Curtis Winston about the Thai film industry.)) interviewed Thai prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland last weekend. Embedded below is the brief video interview. Crampton also has the full transcript on his site.

In the interview, Abhisit says exiled PM Thaksin Shinawatra should return to Thailand to face the charges against him.

“[Thaksin] still has influence,” says Abhisit. “He still has supporters, but the Thai government must prove that our country will enforce the law in a non-discriminatory way. I can assure him that he will get a fair treatment. It is our clear policy and every intention to do just that.”

(Crampton also interviewed Thaksin himself back in November.)

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“Thaksin to receive award from Bolivian president”

Today’s Bangkok Post has this strange story: Thaksin to receive award from Bolivian President

Bolivia’s President Evo Morales was considering giving Thailand’s deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra the Order of Simon Bolivar after he aided Thai people in the grass-root level, improved their living conditions, and settled the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan.

Mr Thaksin was scheduled to receive the award at Plaza Murillo in Bolivia’s La Paz.

In addition, President Morales was expected to approach former premier Thaksin to become his advisor to overcome the economic problems in Bolivia.

The award was named after Simon Bolivar, a historical figure who freed many South American countries from Spanish rule.

I was going to bold certain sections that seemed especially odd. But then I’d just be highlighting the entire article…