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Thai politics

Thailand election: liveblogging the results

Note: I’ll use this post for updates as the vote count comes in…

Final update: 11:00 p.m.:

I’m wrapping things up for the evening. Before I go, here a few thoughts to ponder:

The results of the election are clear. According to Thailand’s Election Commission, as reported by AP, Pheu Thai will likely end up with approximately 260 seats in Parliament, enough to ensure a majority and form a government.

What now?

There has been much discussion, in the past, about whether or not the army would accept another Thaksin friendly government.

Thai political pundits, in discussions on TV tonight, have referred to amnesty for Thaksin as a non-starter.

There’s no telling what could happen, they’ve said, if the exiled billionaire returns to Thailand.

But would Pheu Thai really push for amnesty?

We shall see what the weeks ahead hold in store.

In the meantime, here are a few news stories to chew on:

The WSJ notes that Abhisit has conceded, and raises some questions about the future:

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva Sunday admitted defeat in Thailand’s national election, and said his Democrat Party would cooperate with the new government to be formed by the For Thais Party, which is headed by the sister of exiled former leader Thaksin Shinawatra.

Reuters says:

After six prime ministers in six years of sometimes bloody political upheaval, Thais might be excused for shrugging their shoulders about voting in number seven.

But this time there’s one big difference. The new prime minister will be a woman, the first to hold the position in Thailand.

The FT provides some analysis on Yingluck:

Yingluck Shinawatra, who is poised to become Thailand’s first female prime minister, is a former businesswoman and political neophyte who has struggled to escape the long shadow of her brother.

That’s it for now. Good night.

Update: 9:05 p.m.

Al Jazeera English’s Wayne Hay tweets:

2011 07 03 tweet

Previous post with more info on rumors about a “grand bargain” is here.

Update: 8:10 p.m.

I just tweeted the following:

Yingluck takes question in English. Says will focus first on economic issues. Wais to crowd, says thanks, and is off.

Yingluck presser on TV. http://campl.us/ccld

Yingluck: hopes other parties, like Chart Thai, will join in a coalition. EC has 30 days to certify results & could be red cards.

But Yingluck says wants to wait for official results. This is not PT victory but victory for country. Will focus on reconciliation.

Yingluck on TV: thanks for support, both domestic and overseas. Thanks to other parties for peaceful election…

If election result stands, how will biz community feel about PT’s pledge to raise minimum wage 40 percent?

ASEAN TV: Phue Thai at 255. Dems at 162. PT would have majority.

On TV, Abhisit: Dems will be opposition party. Concedes defeat and says he hopes Yingluck will be Thailand’s first female PM.

Update: 7:40 p.m. Bangkok time:

Journalists are awaiting a speech by Yingluck. ABC Australia’s Zoe Daniel (@seacorro) tweets this photo:

2011 07 03 yingluck presser

Image: Zoe Daniel.

7:30 p.m. Bangkok time:

It looks like the Pheu Thai will still form a majority, but it may not be a “landslide.”

The Nation says:

After the vote count has been done by 48 per cent, the Pheu Thai Party appeared to win 255 MPs.

The Democrat came second with wining 164 MPs according to the count by the Royal Thai Police and EC as of 6:13 pm.

Bangkok Pundit, where you can also find frequent updates, quotes Kom Chad Luek as saying here’s how the numbers currently stand:

Pheu Thai have 254 seats, while the Democrats are at 164.

Stay tuned…

Categories
Thai politics

Exit polls: Pheu Thai wins in a landslide

AP says:

The opposition party allied to ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was poised for landslide victory Sunday in fractious Thailand’s elections, easily garnering the majority needed to form a new government, according to two respected exit polls.
The Election Commission has yet to release results, but is expected to do so later Sunday.

I’ve been Tweeting observations and photos.

More soon…

Categories
Journalism Thai politics

My GlobalPost story on Chuvit’s anti-corruption crusade

Just briefly: Here’s a story I did for GlobalPost about Chuvit Kamolvisit, whose campaign posters are surely familiar to Bangkok residents.

In an interview, the former “King of Commercial Sex” discussed not just his fight against corruption, but he also touched on Abhisit, Thaksin, Yingluck, and more.

Categories
Thai politics Thailand

Thailand election: and we’re off

Voting in Thailand’s first national election since 2007 kicked off this morning.

The New York Times describes the vote this way:

Thais were voting Sunday in a hotly contested election that will open the next stage in the country’s long-running power struggle between the fugitive former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the entrenched political and social establishment that supported a coup that drove him from office more than five years ago.

Meanwhile, here’s an overview of the voting from Al Jazeera English. Video embedded below and available on YouTube.

Elsewhere, Reuters relates a lighthearted moment:

A Thai television presenter asked Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva if this would be the last time he would be interviewing him as prime minister.

Abhisit replied: “Why? Are you quitting journalism?”

It was a brave show of confidence ahead of Sunday’s election by the urbane, Oxford-educated economist who also goes under the birth name of “Mark.”

As a reminder, here’s my roundup of resources for following the election online.

For timely tidbits, I suggest my Bangkok journalists and media-types Twitter list, as well as my general Thailand Twitter list.

Stay tuned…

Categories
Thai politics

Thailand election: By the numbers

Here’s a graphic, via Thailand’s Election Commission, that the Bangkok Post ran with a Thitinan Pongsudhirak column yesterday. The piece begins:

No one haunts and hovers over Thailand’s political landscape like Thaksin Shinawatra.

2011 07 02 thai elex

Image: Bangkok Post.

Categories
Thai politics

Today’s Nation front page…

…features a unique design:

2011 07 02 nation

And here it is, rotated 180 degrees:

2011 07 02 nation2

Images via @lekasina on yfrog.

Categories
HOWTO Thai politics Thailand

Thailand elections: how to follow the news online

On Sunday, Thais will vote in a national election for the first time since 2007. Here are some resources for following the events online.

Twitter

Local media

Thailand’s two most prominent English language newspapers will be providing coverage, naturally:

Thailand-focused blogs

Some good resources include:

Background info

Google News

  • And of course, a Google News search for “Thailand election” will return plenty of material.

Update: July 2, 2011 — corrected link to Asia Foundation’s primer.

Categories
Thai politics

NYT on political views in Thailand’s northeastern countryside

The NYT/IHT has an in-depth story describing how life — and political views — have changed in the Thai countryside over the last 50 years:

As campaigning for the national election Sunday entered its final days, there was broad consensus that rural votes would be crucial in deciding the outcome. But no one is quite sure what rural means anymore.

The piece covers a lot of ground, but one element that may be of particular interest is the description of villagers’ international experiences:

Villagers here complain of slow Internet download speeds. On a single street that winds past rice paddies, residents tell of work stints in Taiwan, Singapore, Israel and Saudi Arabia, enough frequent-flier miles to rival the inhabitants of a tony Bangkok condominium.

And later:

Every family has someone who has gone to work in Bangkok or abroad, says Nirand Nammontri, the owner of a grocery store in Baan Nong Tun who built her house with money that her husband made working at a printing factory in Taiwan.

Categories
Thai politics

Yingluck, the army, and a “grand bargain”?

The Wall Street Journal points out that:

With Ms. Yingluck leading opinion polls, analysts said the key question is whether Thailand’s conservative armed forces will accept an outcome that places the youngest sister of exiled populist billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra—a former prime minister whom the army ousted in a coup five years ago—in Thailand’s top job.

And there’s this, later in the piece:

“Mr. Thaksin is pursuing a dual strategy,” Marc Saxer, Bangkok-based director of Germany’s Friedrich Ebert Foundation wrote in a research paper this week. “Puea Thai is supposed to collect the necessary political capital with a victory in the elections, with a view to prepare a ‘Grand Bargain’ with the traditional elites afterwards.”

The idea that Thaksin and members of the Thai establishment have reached a compromise about what happens after the election — assuming Puea Thai wins and is able to form a government — has been much discussed here in Bangkok in recent days.

Today’s Bangkok Post says:

Pheu Thai party list MP Wattana Muangsuk has dismissed a news report that he struck a deal with Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon to allow the party to form the next government without fear of opposition from the military.

And elsewhere, Wassana Nanuam, who covers the military, writes:

So, it came as no surprise when a news report emerged that Thaksin had sent Wattana Muangsuk, a former commerce minister in the Thaksin administration, to meet with Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon in Brunei in February.

(All emphasis mine.)

Stay tuned.

By the way, a programming note: I will continue blogging — and posting to Twitter — through Sunday’s election.

Future posts will cover news as it emerges, as well as a summary of resources for following the vote online.

In the meantime, Thailand watchers: What do you think about the state of play? Email me: newley AT gmail DOT COM to share your thoughts.

Categories
Thai politics

Sonthi the candidate, Thailand’s military, and the upcoming election

A video report from Al Jazeera English notes that “Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the Thai military man who overthrew former Prime minister Thaksin Shinawat, is one of the candidates running in the country’s general election on Sunday.”

The report is embedded below and on YouTube here.