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More on China, the U.S., GDP, and economic power

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One of the great pleasures I derive from blogging here is receiving feedback from knowledgeable and thoughtful readers. One such reader — a person who has asked not to be identified — wrote in to correct my Dec. 11 post about American misperceptions of Chinese economic might.

As you’ll recall, I linked to a post by the inimitable James Fallows, in which he pointed out a recent Pew report about American views on global economic power.

The report found that 44 percent of Americans think that China — not the U.S. — is the “top global economic power.” This despite the fact that in addition to other telling factors, China’s GDP is less than one third of America’s. (See chart on the right.)

As it happens, there’s more to the story. As the reader pointed out in an email to me, the issue is not merely the 44 percent of those surveyed who picked China. In addition, it’s telling to note that just 5 percent of respondents named the “EU countries.”

Indeed, when it comes to GDP alone, a look at the 2008 numbers from sources like the IMF and the CIA World Factbook demonstrate that the European Union’s collective economy is, in fact, larger than America’s. (See the graph of national GDPs; bigger version here.)

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The CIA World Factbook’s 2008 report, for instance, says that the EU’s economy is worth $18.14 trillion — compared to $14.44 trillion for the U.S.

The IMF’s estimate is similar, while the World Bank puts the U.S. ahead of the Eurozone, since the Eurozone excludes the U.K. This Wikipedia page — List of Countries by GDP (nominal) — summarizes of the three reports quite nicely.

Now, back to the Pew report. Let’s not forget that the question was not “which country (or union) has the world’s largest GDP?”

Rather, the question was which country is the “world’s leading economic power.” Since the EU and Eurozone are not a single country, one can argue that they don’t wield as much economic power as the U.S. That’s because America, of course, is a single economic entity, while the EU cannot always act in a unified way based on the desires of its constituent members.

Fascinating stuff.

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Christmas in Thailand

Entertaining GlobalPost video (embedded below) about Christmas in Thailand.

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Misc.

N. Korea weapons bust: Thailand confirms assistance from U.S.

The latest from AP: Thailand confirms US helped in weapons seizure

BANGKOK — Thailand’s seizure of tons of illicit weapons from a plane from North Korea was the result of cooperation with the United States, a senior official said Thursday.

The Ilyushin Il-76 transport plane was impounded Saturday in Bangkok during what officials said was a scheduled refueling stop. Thai authorities found a reported 35 tons of weaponry aboard it, all exported from North Korea in defiance of U.N. sanctions.

Speaking at a news conference, National Security Council chief Thawil Pliensri confirmed media reports that there had been U.S. assistance in the seizure, but gave no details.

He that Thailand was waiting for advice from the United Nations on whether the weapons should be destroyed.
The U.N. sanctions — which ban North Korea from exporting any arms — were imposed in June after the reclusive communist regime conducted a nuclear test and test-fired missiles. They are aimed at derailing North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, but also ban it from selling any conventional arms.

Thawil revealed little else new at his news conference, which seemed aimed at quashing some rumors. He denied that Thailand would receive a reward or bounty for the seizure, or that it was pressured to act, saying it took action “as a member of the world community.”

He added, however, that Thailand would like to be compensated if possible by the U.N. for the cost of transporting the weapons, which were taken to an Air Force base in the nearby province of Nakhon Sawan.

(Emphasis mine.)

What a story.

Quick administrative note: Given the likelihood of future posts on this subject, I’ve created a label for reference: north_korea_weapons. I’ve added this label to past posts on the topic, as well.

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New Zealand connection to North Korean weapons bust?

From today’s WSJ:

Officials Probe Auckland Firm’s Role in Seized Arms Cache

New Zealand officials are investigating whether an Auckland-based company has links to a weapons-filled plane from North Korea that was detained in Bangkok last week.

Investigators are still unsure where the plane — carrying 35 tons of missiles, explosives and other armaments — was heading or who coordinated the flight plan. Its five-member crew, from Kazakhstan and Belarus, remains in detention in Bangkok and all five have denied knowledge that there were weapons onboard.

Officials in Kazakhstan and the Republic of Georgia have said the aircraft, which is managed by Georgia-registered carrier Air West Ltd., was leased to carry the cargo by SP Trading Ltd., a New Zealand-registered company with offices in Auckland.

Air West director Nodar Kakabadze said he had no information about SP Trading. “We signed a contract with SP Trading Nov. 4 this year to carry out some flights. That’s it,” Mr. Kakabadze said by phone from the freight company’s base in the Black Sea port city of Batumi, Georgia. “I know nothing more about the company, and we’d never worked with them before.”

A copy of the lease agreement between Air West and SP Trading, obtained by Georgian aviation officials and viewed by The Wall Street Journal, lists a person named Lu Zhang as SP Trading’s director. New Zealand government records indicate SP Trading was incorporated there in July of this year and also list Lu Zhang as its director.

“We are indeed aware of this issue and the alleged link to New Zealand,” said a spokesman for New Zealand’s Foreign Ministry. “We are urgently seeking more information,” the spokesman said.

(Emphasis mine.)

There’s also a short follow-up item on the New Zealand angle from Bloomberg today: New Zealand Probes Links to North Korea Arms Plane in Thailand. And there’s a story from the Times Online: North Korean arms plane ‘has links to New Zealand.’

Fascinating stuff.

(Previous posts on this topic are here, here, and here.)

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Why did the cargo plane stop in Thailand? And where was it going?

More details on the recent seizure here in Bangkok of a cargo plane carrying arms from N. Korea (previous posts are here and here.):

A snippet from a Dec. 14 CSM story:

The cargo plane stopped to refuel Dec. 9 in Bangkok on its outward journey, Mr. Panitan says. It was empty and wasn’t searched at the time.

Observers say it’s unclear why the crew would make multiple refueling stops if they were carrying illicit cargo. Moreover, Thailand has a history of cooperating with the US on high-profile interdictions, making it a risky stopover for a plane carrying 35 tons of North Korean weapons.

These interdictions include the arrest and rendition in 2003 of Hambali, a senior al-Qaeda operative in Southeast Asia. Last year, the US Drug Enforcement Agency lured Viktor Bout, a Russian businessman and alleged arms dealer, to Bangkok in an elaborate sting operation. In August, a Thai court rejected a US extradition request against Mr. Bout. An appeal is pending.

“I think the whole thing was stage-managed from start to finish,” says Paul Quaglia, director of PSA Asia, a security consultancy in Bangkok and a retired CIA official. He said the crew may have been part of the set-up and was likely to be quietly deported once the fuss dies down.

The fact that the flight refueled at a military-run airport in Bangkok, a hub for US intelligence gathering, suggests a degree of complicity in a seizure that will humiliate North Korea’s leadership, claims Mr. Quaglia. “It’s a little bit hard to swallow that they just stopped for gas,” he says.

And there’s this snippet from a Dec. 14 WSJ story:

Intelligence experts said the use of a transport plane rather than a ship, and the decision to land in Thailand — a country known to cooperate heavily with U.S. intelligence services — indicates this may have been an unusual or hastily planned delivery.

Flying into Bangkok “was certainly a high-risk mission,” said Rohan Gunaratna, a security expert at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University. That could signify “there was an urgent need to move” to get the weapons to an active conflict zone, he said.

And finally, some graphs from a Dec. 15 AP piece:

Thai government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said the flight plan indicated the aircraft was headed for the Sri Lankan capital, Colombo.

However, investigations into weapons trafficking shows that documentation such as a flight plan “doesn’t mean anything,” said Siemon Wezeman, a senior fellow for the Arms Transfers Project of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

The types of arms reported to be on the aircraft — intended to add firepower to defend against planes and tanks, which are usually in the arsenal of government forces — were typical of those used by insurgent movements, and raised suspicion that they could be headed for an African rebel group, Wezeman said.

Christian LeMiere, editor of the London-based Jane’s Intelligence Weekly, said the range of the Il-76 and its apparent flight path suggested it may have been headed to Africa, where there are groups ready to buy North Korean weapons.

They included Sudan, which might pass the weapons to rebel groups in Chad, and Eritrea, which might keep them for its own arsenal or pass them on to warring factions in Somalia.

(All emphasis mine.)

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More on the N. Korean Weapons Bust

A bit more on the cargo plane full of arms from North Korea that Thai authorities seized here in Bangkok on Friday. (Note: I incorrectly said, earlier, that the bust took place on Sat. In fact, it happened Fri. night. I have corrected my original post.)

I think one of the most interesting angles to the story is what it tells us about how the U.S. government and its allies are using a new U.N. law to disrupt North Korean arms smuggling. The practice is one of several illicit activities that the isolated regime uses to generate much-needed cash. The WSJ has a story today that tells us more about the U.N. law and its enforcement. Worth a read.

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Thailand nabs plane carrying weapons from North Korea

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Image: Reuters

Interesting story here in Thailand that involves North Korea, weapons trafficking, and American cooperation with Thai authorities.

Thailand on Sat. late Fri. ((Corrected Dec. 14)) seized a cargo plane loaded with 35 tons of weapons that was on its way from North Korea to Sri Lanka.

The plane’s final destination is unclear, but the Bangkok Post quotes a Thai air force source official as saying the plane was ultimately bound for Pakistan.

The Post says the weapons included rocket propelled grenades, missiles, explosives, another other arms.

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Image: Bangkok Post.

The plane landed at Bangkok’s Don Mueang airport for refuleing. US authorities tipped off Thailand regarding the illegal payload, and the plane was seized.

Five crew members (pictured here), which Thai media reported are from Kazakhstan and Belarus, have been arrested.

Here are some stories from the NYT, Reuters, BBC, and AFP.

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American misperceptions about China’s economic power

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Note: I have updated this post here.

Excellent post from James Fallows pointing out that a new Pew report shows that 44 percent of Americans think that the “top global economic power” is China. Just 27 percent of respondents correctly picked the U.S.

Yes, China owns a lot of American T-bills. And yes, China’s economy is developing rapidly. But China’s economic might is not as great as many people assume.

From an Oct. 22nd story in the Economist headlined “The Odd Couple: America should be much more confident in its dealings with its closest rival”:

China’s economy is still less than a third the size of America’s at market exchange-rates. Its GDP per head is one-fourteenth that of America. The innovation gap between the two countries remains huge. America’s defence budget is still six times China’s.

(Emphasis mine.)

Check out Fallows’s post (linked to above) for more info.

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Two stories: Red shirts to protest, and Thai Airways sues the PAD

Two stories from Bangkok today that I wanted to point out:

  • Anti-government red shirt protesters will gather today at Bangkok’s Democracy monument for a demonstration between noon and midnight. Ousted PM Thaksin is expected to speak via video-link at 7 p.m. This story from Bloomberg has more info.
  • Thai Airways has sued the PAD — including Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya — for shutting down Bangkok’s airports just over a year ago. The airline wants $17 million for lost revenue. AFP has more.
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Tiger Woods, Thailand, and Thaksin

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Tiger Woods, Thailand, and ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra — they’re all related, if you can believe it.

This is — I hope — the only post I’ll be writing about the Tiger Woods saga. But I wanted to point out the following story since there’s a Thailand connection.

Tiger Woods is half Thai. But my understanding is that Tiger has not, shall we say, fully embraced his Thai-ness. That is, while he has acknowledged his Thai heritage (his mother is Thai), he has not proclaimed a love for or a connection with Thailand.

A little poking around on the internerd revealed this interesting Nov., 2000 TIME story about Tiger’s visits to Thailand.

A few graphs follow. All emphasis mine:

[Tiger’s] total prize money and appearance fees will top $12 million, while endorsements will bring in an additional $50 million. But while Tiger can count on tournament marshals and security personnel to control the throngs on the course, off it the going sometimes gets tough, as was evident during his return to Thailand, the homeland of his mother Kultida.

Woods’ first trip to Thailand as a professional in early 1997 was a three-ring circus. Politicians and TV crews boarded his plane when it touched down in Bangkok before he could unbuckle his seat belt. Woods would describe it as the craziest week of his life; he was hoping things would be a little saner this time around. “I always enjoy coming back to Thailand,” he says. “It’s always neat to be back among family and friends.” Not everyone was so enthusiastic, however. Some Thais feel he should donate more of his wealth to their country; others resent the fact that he lends his name to companies that, in their view, exploit millions of low-skilled local workers. “He basically has forgotten the Thai people,” says Prasong Pathom, a medical doctor who followed Woods around during day one of last week’s tournament. “He is a great golfer and has done some good with his foundation in getting equipment for young kids, but a number of Thais see it as nothing more than a token gesture.”

Woods reportedly received an appearance fee of $1 million to compete in Bangkok while unwittingly taking on the role of political kingmaker. Thaksin Shinawatra, the telecom billionaire and prohibitive frontrunner to become Prime Minister in January’s election, is reported to have footed the bill for Woods in return for a couple of photo-ops. As a council member of Kasetsart University, Thaksin was also pivotal in awarding Woods an honorary doctorate of philosophy in sport. Woods’ handlers informed the university that he was on a tight schedule, however, and that the ceremony could only be 15 minutes long and held at his downtown hotel instead of at the university. “It took him 15 minutes to get something that took me four years,” one student complained in a local paper. After the ceremony, a clearly flustered Dr. Woods was greeted in his hotel lobby by a noisy group of 100 fired employees of sportswear giant Nike (which has a $100 million endorsement deal with Tiger), protesting the layoff of 1,016 workers in September. “Woods should be able to understand why that company can give him so much money,” says Lek Junya Yumprasert, a Thai labor committee official. “It would take workers here 72,000 years to make that kind of money.” Woods was swallowed by a phalanx of security men and quickly exited without comment.

Given that this is an old story, does anyone have any updated info to share?