Category: Thai politics

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Thai politics Thailand

Reuters story on upcoming elections: “odds favor Thai PM”

A Reuters story from Friday:

When television broadcasters suddenly went off the air in Thailand recently, many people thought it could only mean one thing: the start of a military coup.

Authorities were quick to assure the public the three-hour blackout on April 21 was the result of a faulty satellite, not a putsch. But the coup speculation in a country that has seen 18 military takeovers since the 1930s illustrates the depth of uncertainty ahead of elections in late June or early July.

The odds favor the Democrat Party of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in the coming poll. But he’s unlikely to win by a comfortable margin. And regardless of who prevails, neither side may respect the result.

If Abhisit loses, his royalist and military backers are unlikely to give way quietly, possibly using judicial intervention or a coup to restore the status quo.

But if he wins, the red-shirted supporters of his political nemesis, self-exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, could take to the streets in a new wave of anti-government protests.

Worth a read.

(Emphasis mine.)

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Thai politics Thailand

AP story on today’s TV outage and coup speculation

An AP story from this evening:

A brief interruption in some television broadcasts Thursday stoked fears of a military coup in Thailand, where an election is expected to be called within weeks, but the government said a satellite glitch was the problem.

Worth a read.

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Thai politics Thailand

Red shirts claim army preparing for coup

A Bangkok Post story from late today:

UDD again claims army preparing for a coup

Core members of the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) claim the army’s show of force this week is clear evidence of preparations for a coup to block the general election.

And a story from the Nation today:

Red-shirt leaders blow whistle on coup

Pheu Thai MP Jatuporn Promphan said Army Chief of Staff General Dapong Rattanasuwan should explain why he urgenly summoned three key commanders to meet him at his residence on Wednesday’s night.

The three commanders were from the First, Second and Ninth Divisions based in Bangkok, Prachin Buri and Kanchanaburi respectively. All three divisions were involved in the 2006 coup.

Red-shirt leader Natthawut Saikua said he suspected the Army was plotting a coup under the disguise of ensuring preparedness to uphold the monarchy.

Natthawut claimed the mock exercise on preparedness was actually a checking campaign to rally the subordinates before staging the power seizure.

He said under the coup plotters would work in three steps – trying to revoke the bail of red-shirt leaders, ensuring the House dissolution in the first week of May and seizing power of the caretaker government.

Just noting these stories for the record.

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Thai politics Thailand

Sign of the times

Thailand’s TAN News Network on Twitter not long ago:

2011 04 21 TAN TV outage

Related: yesterday’s post.

Update: To be clear, despite the wording of this tweet, no coup is underway. The TV outage led to chatter, on Twitter, about coup rumors. Just a point of clarification.

As you were…

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Thai politics Thailand

Government extends internal security act in Bangkok

Today’s Bangkok Post has this story:

ISA in Bangkok extended

The cabinet on Wednesday again extended the use of the Internal Security Act in seven areas of Bangkok, this time for another 30 days, but Tourism and Sports Minister Chumpol Silpa-acha once again insisted its use was not affecting the tourism sector.

And here’s MCOT:

Cabinet extends security law enforcement in Bangkok for one more month

The Thai Cabinet on Wednesday extended enforcement of the Internal Security Act (ISA) in the capital for another month to maintain law and order as the Red Shirt movement plans a mass rally to mark one-year anniversary of the end of its deadly protest at Ratchaprasong intersection.

Pol Gen Pongsapat Pongcharoen, advisor to the Royal Thai Police on security affairs and special operations, said the Cabinet agreed with the proposal of the Centre for the Administration of Peace and Order (CAPO) to extend the security law enforcement for another 30 days, from April 25 through May 24.

(Emphasis mine.)

As a reminder: The anniversary of the army crackdown is May 19.

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Thai politics Thailand

Thailand’s military continues to make headlines

I’ve mentioned, in previous posts, Thai media coverage of coup rumors — and denials that coups are imminent. So I wanted to point out that the army is once again in the news today.

That’s because the military conducted exercises here in Bangkok yesterday, the Nation and Bangkok Post are reporting.

First, an image from the online version of today’s Nation:

2011 04 20 nation

From the story:

The Army’s First Infantry Division of the Royal Guard yesterday organised a mock exercise billed by its commander Maj-General Kampanat Ruddit as a show of force to uphold the monarchy.

Next, a screen grab from today’s Bangkok Post online:

2011 04 20 bkk post

From the story:

Soldiers have thrown their support behind army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha’s stance to protect the monarchy, with more than 1,000 infantrymen gathering for a military exercise in Bangkok.

And:

In his speech to the troops, Maj Gen Kampanat Ruddit, commander of the 1st Infantry Division of the King’s Guard urged all soldiers to uphold discipline and the integrity of the uniform and to serve the country and His Majesty the King.

“All from the 1st Infantry Regiment are the King’s soldiers. Hence, you must be ready to act on commands of your superiors,” Maj Gen Kampanat told the gathering of infantrymen.

He told them to have faith in their commanders and to strictly obey their orders, and insisted that all soldiers should share the army chief’s stance.

His remarks followed Gen Prayuth’s order for the Judge Advocate General Department to file lese majeste charges against Puea Thai party-list MP and United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) co-leader Jatuporn Prompan, Puea Thai MP for Udon Thani Wichian Khaokham and former Puea Thai MP for Nakhon Ratchasima Suporn Atthawong after speeches at last Sunday’s rally marking the first anniversary of the April 10, 2010 clashes between protesters and soldiers at Kok Wua intersection.

What does this all mean?

For one analyst’s take, see Pavin Chachavalpongpun’s op-ed in today’s WSJ: “Thailand’s Military on the Offensive.” It begins:

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has promised to dissolve parliament next month, meaning a general election will likely be held in late June. But Mr. Abhisit’s insistence on restoring Thailand’s battered democracy has infuriated his backers in the army. They are worried that proxies of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will win the election, thus jeopardizing the army’s interests.

And here’s a column from Pravit Rojanaphruk in today’s Nation: “An army chief who dons too many hats.”

In most democracies, the role of the Army and its chief are rather limited. However, it’s different in Thailand, where the Army chief has been busy donning too many hats lately.

Here are just some of the hats that Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha has put on over the past few weeks…

He lists “top diplomat,” “election chief,” “not-so-convincing denier of coup rumours,” “That of an adviser to all Thai voters,” and “That of chief censor and promoter of the lese majeste law.”

And here’s another story in today’s Bangkok Post with quotes from Prayuth today:

Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha on Wednesday said he had performed his duty to protect the monarchy by seeking legal action against three United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) on lese majeste charges.

(All emphasis mine.)

And finally, as a reminder, here are previous Nation and Bangkok Post front pages. The Nation image is from earlier this month, and the Bangkok Post pic is from Jan., 2010.

2011 04 06 nation no coup

2011 04 06 bkk post coup rumors

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Thai politics Thailand

BKK Post and Nation: Thaksin’s younger sister as potential PM candidate

2011 04 12 yingluck

Today’s Bangkok Post and Nation are running stories about former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s younger sister, Yingluck, as the potential top Puea Thai party candidate in elections expected to take place in June or July.

Bangkok Post:

Thaksin pushes Yingluck for PM

Yingluck Shinawatra is expected to be named the Puea Thai Party’s No.1 party-list candidate, giving her an opportunity to become the country’s first female prime minister.

A Puea Thai source yesterday said the party’s key figures had travelled to meet former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the party’s main supporter and de facto leader, in Dubai and they had agreed to put Ms Yingluck, Thaksin’s youngest sister, as No.1 on the party list and name her as a candidate for the premiership.

Nation:

Problem with Yingluck as PM candidate is her brother loves her

Whether or not Thaksin Shinawatra will risk his beloved youngest sister Yingluck in politics has become a fascinating story, not least because it is a rare Thai political dilemma with real human elements.

While her possible nomination as Pheu Thai’s candidate to be prime minister may be good for the party, as she could romanticise the election campaign, the idea has its downside. She may end up being a sacrificial lamb.

Yingluck’s increasing presence in news headlines has to do with the fact that Mingkwan Saengsuwan faces the same fate as Yongyuth Wichaidit. Thaksin has tried and tested Mingkwan but is not satisfied. Last week’s messages from the man in exile were that the censure is over, and so is Mingkwan’s status as challenger to Abhisit Vejjajiva’s chief executive title.

No larger point to make here, but just wanted to point out the stories.

(Image: Bangkok Post.)

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Thai politics Thailand

Today’s WSJ: Thaksin on new elections

Today’s WSJ: Ousted Thai Minister Vows to Play Role After Elections

DUBAI—Thailand’s ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra emerged from months of silence in his self-imposed exile Thursday to say he intends to play a key role in running from afar his country’s economic policies if Thailand’s main opposition party wins coming elections.

His immediate goals include slashing corporate-tax rates and pushing for an amnesty for everybody charged with politically linked offenses in the tumultuous four-plus years since a military coup in Bangkok swept him from power.

“This conflict has been going on for five years and many people have suffered mentally and physically,” Mr. Thaksin told The Wall Street Journal in an interview in a villa in Dubai. “We should start all over again to help the country prosper.”

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Thai politics Thailand

Once again, coup rumors — and denials

Here’s the front page of today’s Nation, via @LeroyNewsDesign on Twitpic:

2011 04 06 nation no coup

Here’s the accompanying story:

In an unprecedented move, top commanders came out yesterday to declare there would definitely be no military overthrow of the government.

“We ask you not to believe the rumours that soldiers will stage a coup. The Thai Armed Forces strictly abide by the Constitution under constitutional monarchy. Soldiers will not get involved in any political affairs,” supreme commander General Songkitti Jaggabatara told a news conference together with the chiefs of the three armed branches.

(As Saksith Saiyasombut noted on Twitter, it’s impossible to ignore the below-the-fold story, “Cabinet to consider approving pricey military gift list,” as well…)

Here’s more coverage:

  • AP yesterday: “Thai military chief rejects coup rumors”

    Thailand’s top military brass has issued a joint statement saying there will not be a coup, seeking to dispel rumors as politics heat up ahead of expected elections later this year.

  • Bangkok Post: “Military leaders unified against a coup”

    The military’s top brass have vehemently rejected rumours about an imminent coup d’etat sparked by a recent meeting of leading political figures.

    The statement was made yesterday by Supreme Commander Songkitti Jaggabatara in the presence of the commanders of all the armed forces _ army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha, navy commander Kamthorn Phumhiran, and air force chief Itthaporn Subhawong _ at a press conference called after the monthly meeting of senior officers.

And finally, just noting for the record: a related post and photo of the the Jan. 27, 2010 Bangkok Post front page:

2011 04 06 bkk post coup rumors

No bigger point to make at the moment, but just wanted to note the seemingly ever-present discussions/whispers/speculation/denials of the prospect of a military coup here in Thailand.

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Thai politics

New Asia Foundation survey on Thai political attitudes

2011 03 28 thai politics

Yesterday the Asia Foundation released a new survey on political attitudes in Thailand. The full title is “2010 National Survey of the Thai Electorate: Exploring National Consensus and Color Polarization.”

Here’s the full survey (large PDF file). From the press release:

[The survey] is one of the most rigorous and comprehensive public perception surveys conducted since the tumultuous political events of April-May 2010. The survey explores the depth of color divisions in contemporary Thailand; key topics covered include the state of democracy in Thailand, elections, conflict and security, and options for reconciliation.

And:

The survey results suggest citizens are not as politically divided as politicians, analysts, and the media frequently suggest. In reality, the mainstream Thai population (76%) professed no color attachment to either Yellow or Red movements. The data also reveals that there was considerable internal diversity or factionalism within these movements, with no consensus in citizen understanding of the primary objectives of the Yellow and Red movements.

(Emphasis mine.)

(Graphic: The Asia Foundation.)