Author: Newley

Hi. I'm Newley Purnell. I cover technology and business for The Wall Street Journal, based in Hong Kong. I use this site to share my stories and often blog about the books I'm reading, tech trends, sports, travel, and our dog Ginger. For updates, get my weekly email newsletter.

Categories
Misc.

Off topic: Analyzing the US federal deficit and GDP to debt ratio

I wanted to point out two excellent resources for explaining some of the macroeconomic issues related to the debt ceiling standoff in Washington at the moment.

The first is a dispassionate piece from FactCheck.org that examines U.S. federal spending versus income. The current problem is represented in this graph:

2011 07 20 outlays revenues

The red is outlays — or spending — and the blue is revenues. Not a pretty picture.

(Interestingly, on the one hand, the gap between spending and revenue is especially big now. But on the other hand, running a significant deficit has been the norm since the 1970s.)

To summarize the piece: For the last several years we have had increased federal spending due to the stimulus package, banking bailout, and Social Security and Medicare payouts. In addition, military costs are up due to post-Sept. 11 wars.

At the same time, federal revenues are down partly due to reduced income tax receipts because of the Bush tax cuts. And the recession has meant less revenue from corporate taxes.

Read the whole thing.

And second, I suggest listening to the most recent episode of NPR’s “Planet Money” podcast. It’s called “How Much Debt Is Too Much?”

2011 07 20 debt to gdp

Harvard economist Ken Rogoff discusses historical rates of sovereign debt and examines various countries’ GDP to debt ratios. This is a measure of the total value of nations’ economies compared to how much they owe.

What do you think this ratio is for three countries in the news of late: Greece, Italy, and the U.S.?

Listen to the show to find out. The figures may surprise you.

(Image: Global debt to GDP ratio, via Wikipedia.)

Categories
Thai politics

WSJ on Yingluck’s EC endorsement: more MPs needed for parliament to convene

The WSJ says today that:

Thailand’s official vote monitor confirmed this month’s election of Yingluck Shinawatra, but more approvals will be required before her party can assume power and she can take office as the nation’s first female prime minister.

The Election Commission…

…hasn’t yet confirmed some other parliamentarians, leaving legal obstacles that could mean Ms. Yingluck’s Puea Thai, or For Thais, party can’t yet assume power. To convene, parliament needs 475 of its 500 members. So far, 370 have been confirmed.

It isn’t unusual for weeks to pass after a Thai election before a new government is formed.

Categories
Thai politics

It’s official: Election Commission endorses Yingluck

A brief item this afternoon from the official MCOT new agency says it’s official:

Election Commission endorses second batch of 12 MPs-elect including Abhisit, Yingluck, Suthep; Red Shirt winners remain suspended

The Bangkok Post has more.

Categories
Thai politics

NYT on ICJ Preah Vihear ruling

The New York Times says:

The top judicial body of the United Nations on Monday sought to defuse tensions at a Southeast Asian flash point, ordering Cambodia and Thailand to withdraw troops from a disputed temple and establishing a demilitarized zone along their mountainous border.

The piece also contains a couple of graphs of helpful background info:

The dispute over the temple has its roots in the period when French colonizers controlled what is modern-day Cambodia. In the early 1900s, French surveyors traced the border line along the watershed of the Dangrek mountain range, but deviated from the watershed at Preah Vihear, placing the temple inside Cambodia. It was an awkward demarcation because of the temple’s location on a bluff more easily accessed from Thailand.

But Thailand’s government made no protest at the time and used the French maps as their own, according to a judgment by the International Court of Justice in 1962. That judgment established that the temple should be inside Cambodian territory. But the ruling did not address the sovereignty of the land surrounding the temple, which is the subject of the ongoing dispute.

Again, here’s my post on the subject from yesterday.

Categories
Thai politics

ICJ: Thailand, Cambodia troops should withdraw from Preah Vihear

2011 07 18 preah vihear

There’s news today from the U.N.’s International Court of Justice on the Preah Vihear temple. The BBC says:

The UN’s highest court has ordered Thailand and Cambodia to withdraw troops from a disputed border region near an ancient temple complex.

And:

The court said both sides must allow access to observers from the regional bloc Asean.

The AP reports:

The court drew a “provisional demilitarized zone” around the 1,000-year-old Preah Vihear temple that would push Thai troops back from positions they have long occupied and would see Cambodian armed forces leave the temple’s immediate vicinity.

Meanwhile, here is an ICJ press release (PDF) on the ruling.

How will the news affect Thailand’s domestic politics? (Or politics within Cambodia, for that matter?) That’s still unclear.

Before the ruling, the Bangkok Post reported that:

There will not be any immediate troop withdrawal from the disputed area around Preah Vihear temple, regardless of the decision due today from the International Court of Justice, Army Region 2 spokesman Prawit Hukaew said on Monday.

(Emphasis mine.)

For more on the issue, see the Preah Vihear tag.

(Image: Wikipedia.)

Categories
Thai politics

More on the EC delay

More on the Election Commission delay I mentioned yesterday: The New York Times notes:

Efforts to form a new government in Thailand are being snarled by a docket of legal challenges and what critics say are the slow workings of the country’s Election Commission.

The messy aftermath of the July 3 election, which was won by a party backed by the ousted prime minister and billionaire in exile Thaksin Shinawatra, has raised the possibility that the outcome might be reversed, angering supporters of Thailand’s many political factions and ushering in a return to street politics.

And later:

The Election Commission has nearly three weeks to certify the election, a time frame that Gothom Arya, a former election commissioner, said was feasible.

“I am an optimist,” Mr. Gothom said. “The rule of the game is that within 30 days, you have to announce the result. I think they will do it.”

Meanwhile, BP also has some analysis.

Categories
Thai politics

Yingluck and others yet to be endorsed by Thailand’s Election Commission

2011 07 13 nation yingluck

While it’s unclear whether the news constitutes a “bombshell,” as the Nation headline says, here are some details.

Today’s Bangkok Post tells us that:

Yingluck Shinawatra, Abhisit Vejjajiva and a number of red-shirt politicians were missing from the 358 MPs endorsed by the Election Commission yesterday.

They failed to receive confirmation of their election victories from the EC in its first batch of result endorsements, as investigations into complaints against them for allegedly breaching election law are pending.

Pheu Thai’s Ms Yingluck, who is expected to be the next prime minister, Mr Abhisit, the outgoing premier and former Democrat Party leader, and key red shirt leaders including Jatuporn Prompan and Natthawut Saikua are among 142 poll winners whose confirmations have been suspended pending investigation.

And:

Also among those not yet endorsed are the Democrat Party’s acting secretary general and deputy prime minister Suthep Thaugsuban, the Democrats’ PM’s Office Minister Ong-art Klampaibul and former House speaker Chai Chidchob from the Bhumjaithai Party.

And finally, on the would-be “noodle-gate“:

Ms Yingluck, meanwhile, has been cleared by the EC of alleged vote-buying in connection with a highly publicised incident when she fried noodles and distributed portions to voters during a May 31 campaign stop in Nakhon Ratchasima province. However, the EC has not yet ruled on other allegations facing her, and so her poll win cannot yet be endorsed.

Meanwhile, the Nation says:

The Election Commission rattled would-be prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra and the Pheu Thai Party last night after it delayed endorsement of her election win and those of 11 other party candidates.

The commission said the endorsement of Yingluck was delayed pending an inquiry into “several” legal matters regarding her party’s election campaign. Yingluck was portrayed by Pheu Thai as its prime ministerial candidate with a controversial slogan “Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai acts”. She was also accused of violating vote-buying rules by cooking and distributing noodle dishes to constituents. Subsequently, the accusation was dropped by the EC.

The EC also held back endorsement of former Democrat leader and outgoing Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva over complaints of vote-buying.

However, the EC has never “suspended” top party-list candidates in the past.

And:

The EC traditionally does not immediately endorse those who have had complaints lodged against them. The EC will meet again on July 19 to reconsider those have not yet been endorsed. EC member Sodsri Sataya-thum said a subcommittee would look into legal matters concerning the cases of Yingluck and Abhisit and report to the EC in seven days.

Endorsed members of Parliament were advised to pick up documents for their House of Represen-tatives registration from tomorrow.

The EC will have 30 days to investigate the cases of the other 55 MPs-elect who were questioned, the source said. By August 1, at least 475 MPs must be endorsed so that the House can assemble and begin work.

(All emphasis mine.)

(Image: @lekasina on Lockerz.)

Categories
Misc.

Self-promotion: a few Newley.com programming notes

2011 07 12 cartoon

A few quick programming notes, now that things have slowed down a bit following Thailand’s recent election.

The vote attracted global attention, and Newley.com has some new readers.

So here’s a reminder of what you can find here, and as well as a few ways to connect with me elsewhere.

Recent work

  • You can find links to some of my recent stories on my Journalism page.

    I’ve also started linking to many of my pieces on the right side of every page, under the “selected recent stories” heading.

Elsewhere on Newley.com

  • The Popular Posts page contains some greatest hits, organized by topic.
  • I maintain a list of Thailand-related blogs and other sites I like on my Links page.

Get in touch

  • The About/Contact page contains my bio and lists ways to get in touch. I’m always happy to hear from folks, and enjoy getting feedback — negative or positive — on the site.
  • My email address is newley AT gmail.com.
  • You can also get in touch on Twitter. I’m @newley.
  • All Newley.com posts can be found at: @newleydotcom.
  • And there’s a Newley.com Facebook page.

Subscribe via email or RSS

That’s it for now. Thanks, as ever, for reading.

(Cartoon via The New Yorker‘s Cartoonbank.com.)

Categories
Links

11 links

2011 06 28 learning in 2000

Some Thailand-related, some not:

  1. The Foxification of news: In the internet age, transparency may count for more than objectivity — The Economist
  2. ‘Page One’ Excerpt: How The New York Times learned to stop worrying and love the blog — Poynter.org
  3. Byliner: “Discover & discuss great reads by great writers.” — Byliner.com
  4. What’s Scrabble When You Can Play Novelist? — New York Times
  5. The mother of all tail risks: A US technical default would convulse markets. Nothing else is certain — The Economist
  6. Survival Thai: “Learn Thai the easy way with signs in the street” — www.survivalthai.com
  7. 5 Voyeuristic, Cross-Disciplinary Peeks Inside Great Creators’ Notebooks — brain pickings
  8. Healthfully ever after, or why marriage is good for you — PBS.org
  9. separated by a common language: “Observations on British and American English by an American linguist in the UK” — separatedbyacommonlanguage.blogspot.com
  10. For the Executive With Everything, a $230,000 Dog to Protect It — New York Times
  11. Image above: from the French National Library’s Visions de l’an 2000, prints from 1910 of what the world might look like in the year 2000. This image: how learning might work in the future. (Via James Fallows).
Categories
Thai politics

Suit filed against Yingluck for alleged help from banned politicians

I wanted to point out this WSJ story from Saturday, which notes that:

Critics of incoming Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her allies filed the first major legal case challenging their recent election victory, signaling the start of what could become a protracted effort to destabilize Thailand’s new government.

The case, filed Friday by the head of the legal team for Thailand’s outgoing ruling party, seeks to dissolve Ms. Yingluck’s victorious Puea Thai party for allegedly relying on campaign help from politicians previously banned from Thai politics. Chief among them is Thaksin Shinawatra…

(All emphasis mine.)