The mood is calm in Bangkok today, despite the fact that nine small bombs exploded throughout the city last night, killing three and injuring 34. (Nine of the wounded were foreigners.)
My family and A and I had lunch and walked around central Bangkok this afternoon. All was calm.
Meanwhile, everyone’s wondering: who’s responsible for this monumental act of violence?
From The Nation:
— “Southern insurgency not behind bomb attacks in Bangkok : PM”
From the Bangkok Post/DPA:
— “PM: Politics behind bombs; Thaksin denies involvement”
From the New Mandala blog:
…
I suppose restraint would be too much to expect from the military junta. According to The Nation (thanks Patiwat) members of the Council for National Security are already linking the bombings to Thaksin and using this as a pretext to call for the seizure of his assets:“A security source said the Council for National Security may order the seizure of assets of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to cut money supply for financing disturbance in the country. The source said the CNS believed Thaksin was behind the series of seven bomb attacks in Bangkok Sunday evening.”
This despite the fact that intelligence agencies have been unwilling to identify any culprits. I am not going to lose any sleep about Thaksin’s assets, but this is clearly part of a pernicious campaign whereby political leaders and members of a legitimate political party are labelled as subversive and as acting contrary to some vaguely defined national interest. The ongoing campaign against the so-called “undercurrents” – involving increasingly hysterical vilification – is a blatant attempt to silence a legitimate political force.
According to Channel 3, there are 2 theories on who is behind the violence from different academics from southern Thailand.
One view is that it is more likely to be undercurrents because the nature of explosions was not very strong (i.e the number of deaths was not great). Two, because the southern terrorists are not acquainted with Bangkok and it would be difficult for them to stage the attacks.
Another view is that it is most likely the southern terrorists. First, the kind of explosive used with a timer, the shrapnel of 1 cm nail and timing of the events on the evening of 31 Decembers was to cause maximum damage. Says that it is unusual for political movements to use such violence (i.e normally just 1 or 2 small grenades to kill a specific person or go to after a target). Second, the coordinated nature of the bombs also suggests the southern terrorists. Suggested 2 groups of persons involved (one for Victory Monument, Saphan Kwai etc; second, for Klong Toei and other targets on Rama IV road) . Says this would match the modus operandi of the southern terrorists.
…
From an anonymous contributor to Hot Air blog:
Thai authorities are claiming that the bombs set off in Bangkok and a neighboring province are not the work of Muslim terrorists from the south of the country. Political opponents of the recent military coup and the unelected government are said to be responsible for the deaths and injuries.
This explanation has two possible interpretations: the bombings are either the work of supporters of deposed prime minister Thaksin
Shinawatra, or they were committed by other unspecified elements that are enraged by the military’s imposition of an unelected government.Both possibilities beggar belief…
From Zachary Abuza on Counterterrorism Blog:
The low profile targets at first led me and other analysts that I spoke with to discount the involvement of Muslim militants from the deep south. The bombs at first seemed intended to provoke a domestic response, but not elicit much in the way of international attention. While I have long argued that they have never taken the option of targeting Bangkok off the table, nor are they ideologically against it, at the time they really don’t need to change their strategy. At this point the insurgents are winning (they certainly are not losing). The southern insurgents clearly have the technical capacity to execute large-scale bombings in Bangkok. On a daily basis they detonate far more powerful bombs than what went off in Bangkok. Yet, to carry out so many bombings would require an infrastructure in Bangkok that few would consider them to have. The bombs were also not like the ones usually employed by southern insurgents, in terms of composition or detonation device. The bombs in the south tend to be larger usually 5kg and often 10-15kg, and cell-phone detonated. The insurgents have tried for mass casualty attacks. The bombs in Bangkok could have been larger; the aim does not yet seem to be to create mass casualties.