The wire services and the mainstream US media outlets have been slow to pick up the story of Ecuadorian president Lucio Gutierrez’s new scandal (see my previous dispatch for details).
But this afternoon Reuters ran two articles describing the crisis–and people are beginning to say Lucio’s in very serious trouble. (I’m reminded of when Bolivian commentators began mentioning the word “resignation” in reference to then president Goni. But more on that later.)
This article, from Amy Taxin, says:
Ecuadorean President Lucio Gutierrez’s fragile political support has been further weakened by a campaign financing scandal that analysts said on Tuesday could cripple his government.
Taxin further elaborates on Gutierrez’s plight:
Gutierrez, a 46-year-old retired army colonel, is weathering his worst political crisis amid reports his electoral campaign had ties to Cesar Fernandez, a once-prominent politician now charged with drug trafficking.
The scandal has made it even lonelier at the top for Gutierrez, who already had scant support in a Congress run by mainstream political parties and from business leaders disenchanted by his lack of experience, analysts said.
And, finally, speculation on what’ll happen soon:
”If this is proven true, the president is gone,” said Santiago Nieto, director of pollster Informe Confidencial.
But ”even if it isn’t proven, he’s mortally wounded because this will reach public opinion and in February or March when he needs to adjust the economy, he won’t be able to,” Nieto said.
Critics of Gutierrez on radio talk shows have started to discuss the constitutional line of succession in Ecuador, which is one of Latin America’s most unstable nations and has ousted two presidents since 1997 in popular uprisings.
Another Reuters piece details the resignations of Lucio’s cabinet members: “Ecuador’s economy chief and five other Cabinet ministers offered their resignations on Monday to help President Lucio Gutierrez reshape his team amid a political scandal over possible links between his government and a suspected drug trafficker.”
My prediction: as I said yesterday, I think the indigenous movement will capitalize on Lucio’s weakened state. And there’s no reason to think that what happened in Bolivia can’t happen here (although I said a few weeks ago, before this scandal, that an Ecuadorian woman I talked to said the Indian groups in Ecuador aren’t as well-organized as they are in Bolivia).
Nevertheless, Ecuadorian Democracy–although I use that term loosely, as the government is so rife with corruption and bureaucratic ineptitude that it’s essentially broken–is hanging by a thread here at latitude zero. And Lucio’s presidency is certainly in peril.