Yesterday’s red shirt protest here in Bangkok attracted some 30,000 demonstrators. Despite concerns about the potential for violence, the rally was peaceful. CNN.com has details here.
Meanwhile, on the Thailand-Cambodia border, yellow shirt demonstrators fought with local residents near the Preah Vihear temple. Here’s a BBC News report with video of the clashes.
I spent a few hours at the red shirt rally and will be writing more about that soon.
The Bangkok Post has details on today’s planned red shirt rally here in the Thai capital.
For a big picture look at why the anti-government demonstrators are gathering, I suggest this CSM story: “Briefing: Why Thai protesters are taking to the streets again.”
Thai PM Abhisit Vejjajiva
An important political story in Thailand at the moment is the ongoing tussle over appointing a new national police chief. Here’s a summary of what’s happening — and why it matters.
First, some background: Thailand’s police force became a highly politicized body during exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra’s 2001-2006 tenure. Thaksin himself was once a cop, and many high-ranking police officials are still loyal to the billionaire.
PM Abhisit came to office in December, 2008, of course, after prolonged anti-Thaksin protests, which culminated in the seizure of Bangkok’s airports by anti-Thaksin yellow shirt protesters.
Abhisit is now attempting to replace the current police chief, who is seen as a Thaksin ally and is due to retire at the end of Sept. Abhisit has selected his own man in the job.
But there’s the rub.
Various parties in the police force and elsewhere are blocking Abhisit’s move, part of a power play to bring another man — also Thaksin-linked — to power as the new chief. We’re currently at a deadlock: The naming of a new chief has been postponed indefinitely.
Here’s an AFP story about the current state of affairs. And here’s an article from the Bangkok Post with more details.
For a more in-depth look at the issue, I suggest reading political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak’s Sept. 9 Bangkok Post opinion piece, “Public played for fools in police power plays.” And Bangkok Pundit has some recentl analysis here.
Why is this saga important? And what does it mean for Thailand’s political future?
The wrangling is important because it reflects the government’s general disunity and PM Abhisit’s inability to impose his will on Thailand’s own national police force.
In addition, the in-fighting comes at a time of nervousness about a pro-Thaksin red shirt rally scheduled for Sat., Sept. 19 — the third anniversary of the coup that toppled Thaksin.
In order to curb potential unrest, the government has imposed an Internal Security Act that allows the military — in addition to the national police — to patrol the Bangkok district where the demonstration will take place. Red shirt leaders say they expect 20,000-30,000 protesters to take part. Here’s an AFP story with more info.
Abhisit’s perceived weakness, and worries about violent protests or a military crackdown, has led to rumors that a military coup could take place. PM Abhisit is due to leave on Sunday, Sept. 20 — the day after the planned rally — to attend the UN general assembly and G20 meeting in the New York. Thaksin was overthrown in 2006 while he was in New York for a UN meeting. But in this story from the Bangkok Post, Abhisit says he thinks “there’s no reason for a coup.”
This Reuters analysis piece provides some perspective: “Rumours are swirling about a military power grab, but in a country that has undergone 18 actual or attempted coups in 77 years of on-off democracy, this is nothing new.”
Stay tuned…
UPDATE (Sept. 17) — The Bangkok Post has a new opinion piece on the affair (“New twist in police drama”) that concludes with this interesting line: “Thai-style poltics is not only unique but also always ”simply amazing”.”
Indeed.
Some links that have caught my eye of late:
Today’s NYT/IHT has a story about Thailand’s southern insurgency (“Muslim Insurgents Confound Military in Thailand”). There’s also a map and a video on the left side of the page.
For more on the current state of affairs in the south — where 3500 people have died since 2004 — here are some additional news stories and analysis:
A quick heads up that the current Economist has a story about Thailand’s ongoing political crisis. It’s called “Orange, anyone? Red and yellow factions still find compromise elusive.” Worth a read.
Reuters: “Thailand passes tough security law to control protest”
Thailand’s government passed a security law Tuesday that clears the way for the military to be brought in to control a planned rally by supporters of fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), better known as the “red shirts,” plan to demonstrate Sunday outside Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s office, calling for his resignation.
A three-week occupation of the premier’s office in April sparked Thailand’s worst street violence in 17 years, forcing Abhisit to call a state of emergency and stoking concerns over the stability of Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy.
Straits Times: “Thailand invokes ISA”
Thailand’s Cabinet on Tuesday approved the invoking of an internal security law to keep order at an anti-government rally in Bangkok on Sunday.
The law, which suspends some civil rights and puts the military in charge of law and order, will apply only to the historic Dusit district where the rally will take place.
The red-shirted United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) is holding the rally with a twin message: it is calling for dissolution of the House and fresh elections; and for the government not to stall over the petition for a royal pardon for fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
The petition, signed by more than three million people, was sent last week by the King’s office to the government for review.
The invocation of the law, which allows the military to move quickly without declaring a state of emergency, reflects mounting anxiety over the administration of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who is perceived as weak.
You can find more info in this Nation story, as well as in this article from the Bangkok Post. And Bangkok Pundit has some analysis here.
A story in the current Economist sums up the political landscape in Thailand.
Discussed here are PM Abhisit, the red shirts, the yellow shirts (and the PAD’s new political party), and the insurgency in Thailand’s south. Worth a read.
WSJ: “Thai Protest Group Votes to Form a Political Party”
PATHUM THANI, Thailand — Members of Thailand’s yellow-shirt protest movement voted to form a political party, creating a potentially influential force as the country struggles to pull itself out of recession.
Tens of thousands of members of the People’s Alliance for Democracy — a movement instrumental in bringing down two governments — converged on a sports stadium in this town near Bangkok on Monday and voted to transform the grass-roots campaign against corruption into a formal political party.
The apparently overwhelming assent — almost the entire stadium stood up to vote for the change — points to an expanded political role for the group’s leaders after it gained global notoriety for shutting down Bangkok’s international airports for a week last year.
The new party, which the PAD hasn’t yet named, could further elevate publisher and broadcaster Sondhi Limthongkul, the 61-year-old driving force behind the movement.
The PAD’s vote comes as Thailand grapples with its worst economic slump in more than a decade. The state economic planning agency said GDP contracted 7.1% in the first three months of 2009 from a year earlier, the worst performance since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
Also in today’s WSJ: “Thai Economy Enters Recession, but Recovery Is in Sight.”
Thailand’s economy plunged into recession in the first quarter as the global downturn hammered exports and tourism slumped due to political unrest. But the government and economists say the economy is probably at or near the bottom.
Seasonally adjusted gross domestic product shrank 1.9% in the three months ended March from the prior quarter, said the head of the National Economic & Social Development Board, Ampon Kittiampon. The state economic planning agency said GDP contracted 7.1% in the first three months from a year earlier, the worst performance since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
WSJ:
“Thai Says Military Behind Murder Plot: Mogul’s Claim, Absolving Political Foe Thaksin, Puts New Twist on Nation’s Turmoil”
A Thai media baron who was instrumental in toppling two governments said an alliance of military officials and politicians bent on thwarting political change was behind an attempt to kill him last month.
Sondhi Limthongkul’s claim, while unproven, was notable in part because the businessman and protest leader absolved his political foe, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and said both men shared a common desire for change.
Mr. Sondhi made the allegation Sunday in his first public remarks since the murder attempt at dawn on April 17. Police say at least five men fired at least 84 rounds from military-grade assault rifles at Mr. Sondhi’s car as he traveled to his office in Bangkok’s historic old quarter.
Mr. Sondhi had to undergo surgery to remove shrapnel from his skull after the attack, which seriously wounded his driver. No arrests have been made.
The attack was a fresh twist in a continuing political struggle in Thailand over whether the nation should become a functioning, accountable democracy or a place where generals and politicians make deals to determine who wields power, as has been the case for much of Thailand’s history.