Tag: Thai politics

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The red shirt movement, the Thai government, and potential protests

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As we approach the Feb. 26 court verdict in the Thaksin asset case, there has been much speculation — in the local media and from the Thai government — about upcoming Red Shirt protests. What form will the demonstrations take? When will they happen? Will they turn violent?

The Thai government has listed the steps it will take to control these potential gatherings. They will deploy, they say, tens of thousands of troops to keep order. There will be some 200 checkpoints throughout Bangkok. And there will be security forces in place in the north and northeast, Thaksin’s power base. The government says that there are elements of the Red Shirt camp that intend to use violence to bring Thaksin back to power.

The Red Shirts, for their part, have made references to assembling a million protesters in Bangkok. But no date for a potential demonstration has been announced publicly. The Red Shirts say that their movement is a peaceful one — despite the outburst of violence in April, 2009 — and that they merely plan to protest what they call double standards in Thailand. They say that in this country, influential people are able to break the law without repercussions. They chiefly point to the yellow-shirt (PAD) occupation of Bangkok’s airports in Nov., 2008, an act for which no one has been held accountable.

Here are a few stories I suggest consulting for more info.

Image source: Bangkok Post.

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AFP on political instability in Thailand

For a summary of the political situation here in Thailand, I suggest reading this AFP story from today: “Thailand braces for fresh political instability.”

The story includes some interesting quotes from analysts. Such as this, on Abhisit:

The 45-year-old premier came to power in late 2008 when the previous pro-Thaksin government collapsed after protests by the ultra-royalist “Yellow Shirts”, who are aligned with the traditional Thai elite.

He heads an increasingly shaky six-party coalition. But Paul Chambers, a Thailand specialist at Heidelberg University in Germany, said his downfall would lead to an early election that none of his allies can afford.

“The coalition is more likely to stay afloat rather than cave in,” he said. “The dangers to Abhisit currently exist more in terms of violent attacks on his person, rather than his forced removal from the prime ministerial chair.”

And this:

“Political life in Thailand is immature,” said one Western analyst, requesting anonymity, who downplayed rumours of an imminent putsch.

“I see nothing that would suggest that the Thai army is divided. It is an army that obeys,” he said. “There are Red Shirts in the military but in 2006 they participated in the coup because these were the orders.”

(Emphasis mine.)

Read the whole thing.

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Two quick links: Thailand political risks and arms from North Korea

Just quickly, I wanted to point out this Reuters item from yesterday: “FACTBOX-Five political risks to watch for Thailand.” Give it a read.

Also, to follow on the issue of the plane carrying arms from North Korea, Bloomberg had this story Jan. 29 that’s worth a look: “Iran Was Destination of North Korean Arms, Thailand Reports.”

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Reuters: “Are cracks appearing in Thailand’s military?”

Given my recent posts on the subject, I wanted to point out a story that Reuters ran yesterday. It’s called “Are cracks appearing in Thailand’s military?”

Here are the first few graphs.

A grenade attack on the office of Thailand’s army chief this month is stoking fears of a worst-case scenario in Thailand’s political crisis — a possible fissure in the military along fault lines that have divided the country.

Analysts, diplomats and military sources say it is premature to talk of a split in Thailand’s powerful and politicised army but that festering ideological differences show signs of broadening in one of the most charged climates in decades.

A divide in an institution central to Thailand’s power structure would deepen uncertainty over the outlook for Thailand’s export-dependent $260 billion economy, Southeast Asia’s second-largest, and raise the prospect of instability in a country seen as a gateway to the region for foreign companies.

Large numbers of soldiers of lower ranks and some senior officers, analysts say, are sympathisers of Thailand’s rural, grassroots anti-government, red-shirted protest movement.

In contrast, many of the military’s top brass are at the other end of the political spectrum, allied with royalists, business elites and the urban middle classes, who wear yellow at protests and largely support the present government.

The red-yellow divide is growing increasingly intractable.

(Emphasis mine.)

Worth a read.

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Front page of today’s Bangkok Post: “Coup, What Coup?”

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I mentioned yesterday the Jan. 15 grenade attack on the office of Thai General Anupong, and how the incident underscores tensions within the Thai Army.

So I wanted to follow up, just quickly, with a cell phone pic of the front page of today’s Bangkok Post. The story, as you can see, is called “Coup, What Coup?”

Here are the first few graphs:

ANALYSIS: After 22 armoured vehicles appeared on the streets of Bangkok on Monday night, many were wondering if the army was preparing another putsch

Rumours of another coup have been spreading like wildfire after 22 armoured vehicles rolled on to the streets of Bangkok on Monday night.

The sight of the armoured personnel carriers (APCs), which led people to believe another coup was in the works, came several hours after army chief Anupong Paojinda gave assurances there would not be another coup.

“I have denied it [the possibility of a coup] dozens of times,” Gen Anupong said.

(Emphasis mine.)

Worth a read.

I have no viewpoint to add on the issue, but I’m sharing the image because Thailand watchers might like to see how prominent the story is in today’s edition of the print paper.

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Grenade attack on Thai Army general’s office

A brief post about a story that has received little international coverage, but which is worth pointing out to Thailand-watchers…

Local media has reported that on Jan. 15, a grenade was fired into the sixth-floor office of General Anupong Paojinda, in the Thai Army headquarters. The attack happened at night, and no one was hurt.

Still, the incident — and the government has now confirmed it happened, though it was initially dismissed as a rumor — highlights tensions within the Thai army.

The government suspects that army specialist Khattiya Sawasdipol, known for being sympathetic to Thaksin and the red shirts, is behind the attack.

For more, you can find some (inside baseball) stories from the Bangkok Post here (Jan. 26) and here (Jan. 25), as well as analysis pieces here (Jan. 23) and here.

And here’s a Jan. 22 AFP story, as well as a Jan. 23 The Star column from Philip Golingai.

As Golingai points out, here are a couple of graphs from the last Post story I linked to above, by Veera Prateepchaikul:

For the time being, the army chief appears safe, with a tight security cordon around him. But the big question remains in the minds of the general public: how can ordinary people feel safe and secure if the army chief’s life is threatened and he needs extra protection?”

This outrageous incident is a direct challenge to the authority of Gen Anupong in his capacity as the army commander-in-chief – not mention a huge slap in the face.

(Emphasis mine.)

Food for thought.

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Red shirts to rally at Bangkok’s international airport?

Bloomberg yesterday: Pro-Thaksin Group Considers Bangkok Airport Protest:

Supporters of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra are considering staging a protest at Bangkok’s international airport, the scene of a 2008 blockade that helped topple the government.

“We are working the pros and cons and we will finalize this in a meeting later” this week, Sean Boonpracong, a spokesman for the group, said by phone in Bangkok today. The protests “will not be like” those organized by an anti-Thaksin group that closed Bangkok’s airports for eight days and helped push the country into recession, he said.

“We will not disrupt, we will not seize, we will not be anywhere near” the terminal building at Suvarnabhumi airport, he said. “It could be at the entrance to the airport.”

The Bangkok Post today: Planned airport rally sparks alarm

Business leaders and analysts offered dire warnings yesterday about the economic impact if airport operations are once again held hostage to Thailand’s ongoing political soap opera.

Thai stocks fell 1.39% yesterday amid reports that red-shirted supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra could rally at Suvarnabhumi Airport.

Spokesmen for the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, a group led by pro-Thaksin supporters, insist that the rally, tentatively planned for next week, would not disrupt airport operations or interfere with passengers.

But concern spread quickly that the rally could turn into a repeat of November and December 2008, when Suvarnabhumi Airport was closed for eight days by the yellow-shirted People’s Alliance for Democracy, which forced the resignation of the government led by the People Power Party, the successor to Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai.

And another story from today’s Bangkok Post: UDD prepares airport rally but no blockade

The anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship is planning to stage a rally on the main road leading to Suvarnabhumi airport next week.

One of the group’s core leaders, Natthawut Saikua, yesterday said the rally was intended to press for progress in the prosecution of the UDD’s political rivals, the People’s Alliance for Democracy, for its extended blockade of the airport in late 2008.

Mr Natthawut said the protest would be peaceful. The group would not lay siege to the terminal and they would not block off the airport’s entrances.

(Emphasis mine.)

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Thai PM Abhisit on Map Ta Phut: Notes from last night’s FCCT speech

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Just as I did last year, I wanted to share my notes from the speech that Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva gave at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand event here in Bangkok last night.

Because I’ve been covering the Map Ta Phut industrial estate issue, I took particular interest in Abhisit’s comments on the topic.

The back story, in case you haven’t been following the case: 76 industrial projects worth nearly $10 billion in Map Ta Phut were suspended by Thailand’s central administrative court on Sept. 29, 2009. The order came after complaints about ongoing pollution in the area and allegations that the projects aren’t in compliance with the 2007 Thai constitution. This NYT story provides a general overview.

Most recently, on Dec. 2, 2009, Thailand’s supreme administrative court upheld the ruling after an Abhisit administration appeal. Just 11 of the 76 projects have been allowed to continue. It remains unclear when the rest of the stalled projects will be able to resume.

Here’s what Thai PM Abhisit had to say about the issue during the the Q&A session last night. I have bolded his comments about a time frame for resolving the issue, as well as his thoughts on the foreign investment climate and future enforcement of Thailand’s environmental laws:

The basic problem is this: the constitution says that any project that might have severe environmental or health impact on local communities must follow certain procedures.

What happened with the projects in Map Ta Phut was the government felt that those projects did not have severe environmental or health impact on the local communities, and our judgment on that was not just our own judgment, it was based on the environmental impact assessment that had been made according to our environmental law.

Now, unfortunately our judgment and the administrative court’s judgment were different. The court said that these projects might affect the local communities in terms of health and environment impact severely, so it had issued a temporary order to freeze these projects.

So what we did was that first of all, we said to the private sector who were involved, if they were prepared to voluntarily join the process that you have to go through if these projects were projects that could severely have an impact on the community, then let’s do it, voluntarily. And to do that we have to have regulations and then subsequently laws that would set up this process. We’ve now achieved that.

We’ve got the announcement by the environmental ministry so that you can do the EIA and HIA according to the new standards. You can now have a public hearing and also an independent views being submitted according to the regulations issued by the prime minister’s office. A number of projects have already begun to go through this process, which can take maybe up to six or eight months.

Now out of those projects, in fact the ones that are most affected are the ones that had completed construction or were already in operation. [inaudible number] more are under construction and we’ve identified about 19 that we feel have a good case to put to the admin court to have them released from this temporary order. The rest actually were in the process of seeking approval.

For new projects and new investments all this means is they have to go through a more vigorous process in terms of assessing health and environmental impacts, but the rules are clear.

So what clearly has upset sentiment has been the uncertainty that the current projects are facing because they thought they had gone through all the legal requirements but they have been ruled not to have done so, and they are correcting that.

So it’s something that I think we have now reached a point where there is a clarity about what needs to be done and I think also we are at the point where new investment has to accept higher standards of scrutiny before they get their permits.

(Again, emphasis mine.)

(Image source: AFP via BBC NEWS.)

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Two stories: Red shirts to protest, and Thai Airways sues the PAD

Two stories from Bangkok today that I wanted to point out:

  • Anti-government red shirt protesters will gather today at Bangkok’s Democracy monument for a demonstration between noon and midnight. Ousted PM Thaksin is expected to speak via video-link at 7 p.m. This story from Bloomberg has more info.
  • Thai Airways has sued the PAD — including Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya — for shutting down Bangkok’s airports just over a year ago. The airline wants $17 million for lost revenue. AFP has more.
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Thaksin’s new alias: Takki Shinegra?

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When Thailand’s exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra bought Manchester City FC in 2007, some of the club’s fans began referring to him Frank, as in Frank Sinatra.

Now there’s this item in today’s Nation:

Thaksin’s new name : Takki Shinegra

Runaway ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra has used new name in his passports issued by some African countries, Thai Vice foreign minister Panich Vikitsreth said Wednesday.

Thaksin’s name in passports issued by Nicaragua, Uganda and Montenegro has been changed to “Takki Shinegra,” he said.

The Thai government has revoked Thaksin’s diplomatic passport issued during his premiership. He was believed to have an ordinary Thai passport. Some African countries have issued him a special passport to facilitate his travels and his visit to the countries.

Interesting.

(Thanks to A for the tip.)