I saw this poster in my Metro car on the way to work this morning:
It’s from Friends of the Earth, an environmental group that “champions a healthy and just world.”
FOE’s claim — that global warming is responsible for the devastating storms of the past season — is a massive oversimplification of what we know about climate change and hurricanes. The actual working climate scientists say that it just ain’t that simple:
Due to this semi-random nature of weather, it is wrong to blame any one event such as Katrina specifically on global warming – and of course it is just as indefensible to blame Katrina on a long-term natural cycle in the climate.
In fairness, they go on to note that:
…In the same manner, while we cannot draw firm conclusions about one single hurricane, we can draw some conclusions about hurricanes more generally. In particular, the available scientific evidence indicates that it is likely that global warming will make – and possibly already is making – those hurricanes that form more destructive than they otherwise would have been.
So it may well be that global warming is exacerbating hurricanes, and it does, indeed, appear that sea surface temperatures, which fuel hurricanes, are on the rise. But in the aftermath of Katrina, it’s in poor taste for FOE to claim, as a matter of fact, that “warmer seas mean more killer storms.”
Global climate change is happening. We need to burn fewer fossil fuels. We need to do a better job of conserving energy. And we need to do whatever it takes to make New Orleans safe from future storms (including implementing a real, workable evacuation plan). But the situation is exponentially more nuanced, from a scientific perspective, than FOE makes it out to be.
UPDATE: Don’t miss my friend Ben Preston’s response to my post. Ben’s a climate scientist himself (now with CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research in Australia, formerly at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change) and he points out some mixed messages FOE’s sending with this oversimplified poster.
4 replies on “Climate Change and Hurricane Katrina”
Thanks for writing, Erich.
To answer your question: it’s in poor taste for your organization to state, matter of factly, that “WARMER SEAS MEAN MORE KILLER STORMS,” when even you have demonstrated, in your comment, that this is not an established scientific fact. You wrote: “We believe that the American people need to know that one of the *likely consequences* of global warming is an increase in the intensity of storms.” (Emphasis mine.)
Your poster oversimplifies a complex situation in a sensational manner. That’s why it’s in poor taste.
I’d also like to point out that on the FOE’s Web site, the email you suggest visitors send to policymakers states:
“*We can’t be sure that global warming caused any of this season’s many hurricanes*. But the evidence is in that global warming will cause future hurricanes to be more intense as the seas heat up.” (Again, emphasis mine.)
Now wait a second.
Your poster’s assertion that “WARMER SEAS MEAN MORE KILLER STORMS,” implies that warmer seas are a result of global warming. And yet you say that “we can’t be sure that global warming caused any of this season’s many hurricanes”? Since your argument, as you’ve expressed it here, is that warmer seas are exacerbating hurricanes (not causing them), then I think your poster is misleading.
At Friends of the Earth, we’re not at all clear why letting the public know that global warming is linked to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms is in “poor taste.” Science published an article on June 17, 2005 by Kevin Trenberth (National Center for Atmospheric Research), which reached the following conclusion about the relationship between global warming, warmer seas, and storm intensity:
“Trends in human-influenced environmental changes are now evident in hurricane regions. These changes are expected to affect hurricane intensity and rainfall, but the effect on hurricane numbers remains unclear. The key scientific question is not whether there is a trend in hurricane numbers and tracks, but rather how hurricanes are changing.” (Science, 17 June 2005: Vol. 308, No. 5270 pp. 1753-1754).
The FOE advertisement is a restatement of Trenberth’s findings. We believe that the American people need to know that one of the likely consequences of global warming is an increase in the intensity of storms.
Obviously, we agree that global warming is happening and that we need to reduce our use of fossil fuels. Reducing greenhouse gases would reduce the likelihood of more storms with Katrina’s intensity, and thereby reduce the danger to the millions of people in our hemisphere who are at risk from hurricanes.
In many ways, I hope that our ad will continue to create similar forums in which to discuss the real problems posed by global warming.
Great follow-up post, Ben.
Newley,
Well done, couldn’t have said it better myself. Check out this follow-up at BP.com
http://blpreston.blogspot.com/2005/12/with-friends-like-these.html