The NYT has a story about Yingluck Shinawatra from the campaign trail in Nakhon Phanom, northeastern Thailand. The lede says:
Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a coup more than four years ago, is back at the center of Thai politics in the guise of the person he calls his clone: his younger sister Yingluck, who is a candidate for prime minister herself as the leader of the main opposition party.
There’s also a slideshow.
Today’s WSJ says that “As Thailand prepares for a national election, persistent political instability is threatening to further dent confidence in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy as it struggles to keep pace with its neighbors.”
Aljazeera English yesterday ran an interview with Thailand’s caretaker prime minister (that’s his official title now), Abhisit Vejjajiva. He talks about last year’s violence and the upcoming elections.
The video is online and embedded below:
Reuters ran four stories about Thai politics yesterday. One calls Yingluck Shinawatra “populist but pro-business” and provides a summary of her potential business policies:
Private-sector reforms, corporate tax cuts, wage increases and a big boost in domestic consumption could be on the cards for Thailand if Yingluck Shinawatra becomes the country’s first female prime minister after the July 3 general election.
The second story, a summary of the parties facing off, says:
Forty parties will contest a July 3 general election in Thailand, with the ruling Democrat Party and opposition Puea Thai Party jostling for first place and others vying for stakes in what is expected to be a coalition government.
The third piece provides basic details on the number of voters, candidates, parties, etc:
500 seats are up for grabs, an increase of 20 from the 2007 election. There will be 375 constituency seats available from 76 provinces and the capital, Bangkok, which has a quota of 33 of those seats. The remaining 125 seats will be decided by the party list vote.
And finally, the fourth story, a feature, describes Thailand’s “red shirt villages.” From the nut graf:
Ahead of a July 3 national election, dozens of rural communities are branding themselves a “Red Shirt Village” in this poor northeast plateau, home to a third of the country’s population, giving the movement grass-roots muscle to mobilize behind its parliamentary allies, the opposition Puea Thai Party.
More on Thailand’s elections, which are set for July 3:
The Christian Science Monitor says the election is a “high-stakes contest in a shaky democracy”:
Observers say that the bitter rivalry between political groups, and the risk that neither would accept defeat, has increased the stakes.
The Bangkok Post points out that “A Pheu Thai victory does not guarantee a Pheu Thai government”:
Without a landslide victory, Pheu Thai has little chance of forming the next government even if it wins the July 3 election.
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva officially announced the election date and House dissolution via state television last night after a royal decree to dissolve the House of representatives was endorsed by His Majesty the King.
It was widely believed by several parties that the opposition Pheu Thai would win the election with the highest number of MP seats among contenders.
However, questions remain as to whether it can successfully form the next government.
Elsewhere, Bloomberg notes the risk for equities:
“The outlook for Thai equities will be a bit risky after the election because there will be more uncertainty in forming the coalition,” said Kiattisak Jenwipakul, head of research at SCB Securities Co., a unit of Siam Commercial Bank Pcl. “Domestic spending statistically jumps during the campaign because people are more upbeat and cash from politicians channels through the system.”
The Financial Times also has more on the economic implications of the coming election.
And finally, a Reuters “fact box” says some wonder whether an election will actually happen:
The election may not actually take place. Conspiracy theories abound that influential figures may be plotting to derail the poll by engineering judicial or military intervention. Some fear de facto power could return to Thaksin, who would seek to overhaul a power structure dominated by his political enemies. A Puea Thai government could scrap some of the previous government’s policies, initiate top-level purges within key institutions like the judiciary, police and military and perhaps seek an amnesty allowing Thaksin to return home and resume his political career without serving a two-year prison sentence for graft.
(All emphasis mine.)
(Image: Bangkok Post.)
The AP says:
Thailand’s king has approved a decree dissolving the lower house of Parliament and setting general elections for July 3, the government spokesman said Monday.
Here’s the nitty-gritty:
The polls will elect 500 members of the lower house, an increase of 20 from the outgoing chamber.
The elections are expected to be fiercely contested between Abhisit’s ruling Democrat Party and the main opposition Puea Thai Party associated with Thaksin.
The Democrats held 172 seats in the outgoing lower house compared to 186 for Puea Thai, which won the most seats in the last elections in 2007 and formed a government that ruled for about a year.
However, controversial court rulings and militant anti-Thaksin demonstrations helped Abhisit’s Democrats take power by wooing enough lawmakers to join a new ruling coalition.
Polls suggest that Puea Thai will win the most seats, but probably not a majority. If so, the balance of power will lie with smaller parties whose allegiances are often won by the number of Cabinet seats they are offered in a coalition government.
The WSJ has more analysis:
Political analysts say the election will be among the most important this key Southeast Asian economy has ever faced and could set the political tone in the country for years to come, determining whether it gets back on track after years of instability or possibly faces renwed unrest.
Here’s more from Reuters, the BBC, and AFP.
And finally, a technical note: It appears that Abhisit is transitioning from his @PM_Abhisit Twitter handle to @Abhisit_DP. (The “DP” presumably stands for Democrat Party.)