Tag: Politics

Southern Thailand Insurgency: Worse Than Ever

Insurgency in Southern Thailand [Not My Image]

Here’s another good IHT story, this time from Seth Mydans. It’s about the Muslim insurgency in southern Thailand.

PATTANI, Thailand: Some are already calling it war, a brutal Muslim separatist insurgency in southern Thailand that has taken as many as 2,000 lives in three years, with almost- daily bombings, drive-by shootings, arson and beheadings.

It is a conflict the government admits it is losing. A harsh crackdown and martial law in recent years seem only to have fueled the insurgency, generating fear and anger and undermining moderate Muslim voices.

A new policy of conciliation pursued by Thailand’s junta since it took power in a coup five months ago has been met by increased violence, including a barrage of 28 coordinated bombings in the south that killed or injured about 60 people a week ago.

“The momentum of violence is now beyond the control of government policy,” said Srisompob Jitpiromsri, a political scientist at Prince of Songkhla University here.

“The separatists can pick and choose the time and place of the violence without any effective resistance,” he said. “They have the upper hand.”

Bombing Spree in Southern Thailand Kills 3

Southern Thailand Bombings [Not My Image]

CNN/AP:

At least 28 bombs exploded Sunday in apparently coordinated attacks in parts of southern Thailand plagued by a Muslim insurgency, killing three people and wounding more than 50, the military said.

The bombings targeted hotels, karaoke bars, power grids and commercial sites in the country’s southernmost provinces, the only parts of predominantly Buddhist Thailand with Muslim majorities. Two public schools were torched.

Police said three Thais of Chinese descent were also gunned down in Pattani province in what was believed to be the act of insurgents. The killings occurred as the country’s Chinese community was celebrating the Lunar New Year Sunday.

Violence in the south has been escalating in recent months despite a major policy shift by the military-imposed government, which is trying to replace an earlier, iron-fisted approach in dealing with the rebels with a “hearts and minds” campaign.

More than 2,000 people have died in the provinces bordering Malaysia since the insurgency erupted in 2004, fueled by accusations of decades of misrule by the central government. The insurgents have not announced their goals, but they are believed to be fighting for a separate state imbued with radical Islamic ideology.

For more details on the story, go to Bangkok Pundit. And for background info, I recommend the south Thailand insurgency Wikipedia page.

Categories
Misc.

Ecuador’s Defense Minister Dies in Helicopter Crash

CNN/Reuters:

Ecuador’s first female defense minister was killed on Wednesday after only nine days in office in a mid-air collision of two helicopters, government and military officials said.

The accident in the Andean nation further rocks the leftist government of President Rafael Correa, who has clashed with Congress over his executive powers and prompted street protests since taking office along with his ministers on January 15.

Minister Guadalupe Larriva, a former teacher and senior official of a socialist political party supporting Correa, died in the crash in a Pacific coastal province east of Quito, presidential spokeswoman Monica Chuji said.

Correa wanted Larriva, one of only a few civilians to lead Ecuador’s 176-year-old military, to control an institution that has played a part in the ouster of three presidents in the last decade by publicly withdrawing its support as street protests erupted.

Larriva, one of the most popular members of the Cabinet, had promised to strengthen presidential control of military ranks, improve salaries for the armed forces and make the promotions system more transparent.

U.S. firemen stationed at an air base at the port city of Manta rushed to the scene of the crash, a U.S. Embassy spokesman said.

(Emphasis mine.)

Note: In his presidential campaign, Correa vowed not to renew the US’s lease on the facility, which is set to expire in 2009.

Related: More on Ecuador’s new president.

Thailand: A “Country in Commotion”

Thai Soliders

Seth Mydans has a good front-page story in today’s IHT. He sums up the theories regarding who might’ve orchestrated the new year’s eve bombings and weighs in on where Thailand may be heading:

A string of lethal bombs that disrupted New Year’s celebrations here has brought into the open a simmering confrontation between the ruling military junta and the opponents it unseated in a coup three months ago.

The attacks signaled the start of what could be a difficult year for Thailand as the military, the police and the entrenched elite wrestle for control of the country’s future.

Read the whole thing.

In Time magazine, Hannah Beech quotes an analyst who says the bombings probably weren’t carried out by southern insurgents:

…
As the new year began, Bangkok was swirling with speculation about the masterminds behind the bombings. Initial suspicion centered on Muslim insurgents, who have terrorized Thailand’s south with unrelenting attacks that have claimed nearly 2,000 lives over the past three years. But the insurgents, some of whom are fighting for a separate Muslim state, have never taken their bloody campaign out of the south. “It’s unlikely this was the work of southern insurgents,” says Francesca Lawe-Davies, Southeast Asia Analyst for the International Crisis Group. “It’s always been more about their territory; if they were to stage an attack in Bangkok, I think they would choose a target more directly linked to the Thai state instead of public places.” At a press conference a day after the bombings, interim Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont discounted speculation that the carnage was coordinated by Muslim extremists, instead linking the bombs to “people who lost benefits from losing political power.”
…

At USNews.com, however, David E. Kaplan, quoting Zachary Abuza, links the bombings to the southern insurgents:

Add Thailand to the list of Islamist insurgencies spinning out of control.

Best known for its spicy food, sex trade, Buddhist monks, and once booming economy, Thailand is now home to one of the world’s more brutal jihad wars. For three years, a stubborn and increasingly violent insurgency has grown in the heavily Muslim districts of the country’s south, made worse by the clumsy and corrupt response by Thai officials.
…
You can look forward to hearing more about this mess. Add Thailand to a troubled list that includes Afghanistan, Chechnya, Iraq, Kashmir, Mindanao, and Somalia.

And, finally, the Washington Post is running this Reuters story by Ed Cropley:

Army-installed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont told Thailand on Thursday to prepare for repeats of the bomb attacks which killed three people and wounded 38 in Bangkok on New Year’s Eve.

“I would like to ask our brothers and sisters to brace themselves for a life-threatening thing like this for a while,” Surayud told the National Legislative Council, which is acting as a parliament in the wake of a September 19 military coup.

He gave no details.

His comments are likely to keep the 9 million inhabitants of the sprawling capital on edge after a string of bomb hoaxes and scares since the New Year. Thai media reported false alarms at a government office and major shopping mall on Thursday.

Categories
Misc.

More on the Bangkok Bombings

Bombs Explode in Bangkok

Here in Bangkok, four days after the new year’s eve bombings, the mood is still tranquil. But the question remains: whodunit?

My buddy Dan Ten Kate has a good story in the Asia Sentinel:

“Thailand’s Bombing Mystery Gets Murkier: Allegations, conspiracy theories and bomb threats continue to swirl in Bangkok.”

A snip:

Although Thailand’s junta leaders have been generally praised by the local press in the wake of the bombings that rocked Bangkok’s peaceful ambiance at the start of the year, concerns are growing about their competence in the wake of contradictory statements and a seeming lack of political, economic and law enforcement direction.

Contending forces appear to be emerging across a wide range of the power structure including within the police and military. Some political analysts are also theorizing that the bombings, which took the lives of three and injured nearly 30, could be the manifestations of a power struggle within the junta that took power after pushing deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra from power.

Certainly, there were conflicting statements aplenty Wednesday from the military junta and the country’s appointed civilian leaders. Although General Saprang Kanlayanamitr, a leading junta member, told reporters that the “evidence and intelligence information proves that the bombs were the dirty work of politicians who lost power and benefit. Some bad soldiers loyal to the bad politicians collaborated with them with the intention to topple this government,” an hour or so later that statement was contradicted by military-appointed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont.

Elsewhere:

— Taipei Times/AP: “Thai army says Thaksin backers behind attacks”

— IHT/AP: “Thaksin denies links to New Year’s bombings, Loyalists behind attacks, military says”

And as for the impact that the bombings may have on the Thai tourism industry, MSNBC.com is running two stories, one from the AP and one from Reuters:

AP: “Tourists undeterred by Thai bombing, But blasts concern experts about effects of travel advisories”

Reuters: “Bangkok bombs cast shadow over Thai tourism, Tour operators fear travel warnings will make year’s growth more difficult”

I can say this: My family and I traveled throughout various parts of Bangkok yesterday — from the Oriental hotel on the banks of the Chao Phraya to Emporium mall on Sukhumvit Rd. — and there was no shortage of tourists anywhere. Even the open-air Suan Lum night bazaar, which we visited two nights ago, was crowded, despite the fact that a bomb was reported to have been discovered there on new year’s eve and subsequently disposed of.

Elsewhere, Jotman is blogging about the bombings. And Bangkok Pundit, of course, continues to be a reliable source of info.

Thailand’s Failed Currency Control Experiment

20 Baht

Reuters/CNN:

Thai shares bounced back on Wednesday from their biggest sell-off in 16 years after the government back-pedaled on currency controls, but the abrupt policy U-turn shattered confidence in its economic chiefs.

The stock market, which plunged 14.8 percent on Tuesday — its biggest one-day drop since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 — ended 11.2 percent higher after the army-appointed government exempted stock buying from controls on short-term currency inflows just a day after imposing them.

The stunning about-face in the wake of a foreigner-led rout that knocked $23 billion off Asia’s worst-performing bourse this year rekindled memories of the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis and brought howls of derision from analysts.

“The one thing worse than an incompetent central bank is an incompetent central bank that flip-flops,” said Bratin Sanyal, head of Asian equity investments at ING in Hong Kong.

Domestic investors were equally scathing in their criticism of the technocrats appointed by the military leaders who ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a September 19 coup.

“I’m stunned. They are truly incapable. Please, get the hell out,” 35-year-old businessman Chan Pornpipatkul said.

Meanwhile, Tom Fuller and Wayne Arnold report in the IHT that the Thai central banker says Siam’s the real victim here:

The steep decline of the dollar is punishing Asia’s smaller economies and should be addressed by global financial regulators, the governor of the Thai central bank, Tarisa Watanagase, said Wednesday.

Speaking as the Thai stock market rebounded from a record one-day drop of 15 percent, Tarisa defended the government’s attempt to block short-term foreign investment.

Dismissing criticism that the move had tarnished Thailand’s reputation among international investors, she instead portrayed Thailand as a victim of the large imbalances in trade and savings that send trillions of dollars sloshing in and out of developing countries.

“This is not a problem unique to Thailand,” Tarisa said during an interview. “I’m sure that if this sort of problem is not cured in a cooperative manner, we could see similar measures elsewhere.”

By imposing capital controls on Monday, Thailand sought to slow inflows of foreign money because it had resulted in a double-digit appreciation of its currency against the dollar since the start of the year. Tarisa urged the International Monetary Fund or the Asian Development Bank to find a solution to the problem. Otherwise, she said, “The smaller, open economies will have to take the issue into their own hands.”

(Emphasis mine.)

Categories
Misc.

Thaksin: Neither Out of Sight Nor Out of Mind

Seth Mydans, in the IHT:

Really, he is not up to anything.

Just doing a little shopping, taking a well-earned rest. What is everybody so worked up about?

From China to Hong Kong to Bali, Thailand’s deposed prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in September in a coup, has been circling his country, mostly shopping for blazers, handbags, things like that; playing a little golf.

And whoops! Wherever he goes, reporters seem to catch up with him.

Almost every day, it seems, he is in the newspapers back home, the coup victim who just won’t go away.

At one point last week he ran playfully from reporters in a Hong Kong department store before turning to tell them, “I have no plan yet.”

He seems to be having a much better time than the generals who ousted him, struggling to master the bucking bronco of a country he left behind.

Ex-PM Thaksin Roams the Streets of London Solo

Ex-PM Thaksin Roams the London Streets Alone

How the mighty have fallen.

The Nation newspaper ran some photos yesterday of Thailand’s ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra strolling about London all by his lonesome. (He’s currently in exile there after being deposed in the military coup.)

The images seems to convey that Thaksin feels bummed, like, “I’m so lonely here in the UK and I feel so left out.” Also, don’t miss the taunting prose that the Nation ran along with the pics.

(As an aside: I don’t mean to compare Thaksin to Lil’Kim, but I can’t help but draw a parallel between these stark photos and the latter’s famous “I’m so ronery” ballad…)

Prime Minister Surayud Addresses the Foreign Press

Thai Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont

Last night A and I attended Thai Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont‘s first major address to the foreign press since he took office following the September 19 military coup. In a wide-ranging speech followed by a question and answer session, the PM and his cabinet members outlined their plans for holding new elections — and touched on a host of other issues.

The photo above — and I apologize for its poor quality — is of PM Surayud seated on the dais. (Click on the image for a bigger version.)

The IHT’s Tom Fuller has some analysis of the PM’s remarks (notably Surayud’s proclamation that Shariah law could be imposed in the restive south), while The Nation’s also got some details regarding the evening.

Thai Coup: Six Weeks In

Thailand Coup: CNN International -- Soldier with Yellow King Flag

Seth Mydans had a good story in yesterday’s IHT:

It was a smiling coup for the Land of Smiles, quick, neat, bloodless and broadly popular among the citizens of Bangkok. For several days, the tanks in the streets were a sort of petting zoo as families brought their children to climb onto the big, friendly machines.

Now, six weeks later, the tanks are gone, the mess of politics has reasserted itself and the generals are fumbling a bit with their new image as managers. People have begun to complain that these fix-it men have not yet produced what one foreign political analyst called “instant democracy.”

(Emphasis mine.)