Colum Murphy has a comprehensive essay about Thailand’s political situation in this month’s Far Eastern Economic Review:
Inside the entrance to the Thai Rak Thai’s party headquarters in Bangkok hangs a giant photograph of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra bowing to King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Dressed in the white uniform sometimes worn by government officials, the prime minister is prostrate before the much-revered king in a gesture of devoted servitude. Yet few in Thailand believe that relations between the two men are as amiable as the photograph suggests.
“He [Mr. Thaksin] has pitched a fight with the Bangkok elite, including the palace—and that means the king himself,” says a Western diplomat. Earlier in the year, Mr. Thaksin reportedly said that he would step down if the king “whispered in his ear” to do so. “Well the king has not just whispered it, but has said it indirectly in public,” adds the diplomat.
With fresh elections planned for October 15, it could be only a matter of weeks before a major showdown occurs. But more is at stake than Mr. Thaksin’s political career. There would be ramifications for the monarchy as well, and its relationship with the country’s still-weak democratic institutions. A drawn-out dispute between Mr. Thaksin and the king, also known as Rama IX, threatens to derail efforts to address the challenges to Thai society such as the disparity between the rich and poor, the urban and rural, as well as systemic corruption.
(Emphasis mine.)