It’s possible, says one expert in Thailand.

But a look at water levels in Thailand’s dams reveals that they seem to have plenty of capacity at this point.

A story in today’s Bangkok Post says:

Bangkok is at risk of flooding from heavy downpours caused by an unusually lengthy monsoon trough period and an imminent storm early next month, an expert has warned.

Run-off from the North, which last year left parts of the capital submerged, will only worsen the flooding because the real threat this year is rain that may overwhelm the current inadequate drainage system in the capital, said Thanawat Charupongsakul, a disaster and geographic expert at Geology Department of Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, yesterday.

The city has so far not released enough water from canals to the extent done back in 2006 when canals were left with plenty of capacity to hold floodwater, he said.

“To make things worse, City Hall has still not stopped quarrelling with the government over flood management,” he said.

(Indeed, during my reporting on last year’s inundation, some experts told me that a major problem was a lack of coordination between government agencies.)

And:

Mr Thanawat is most worried about October because that is when run-off from the North and high tides increase the water level in the Chao Phraya River.

The city’s river embankment is about 2.5m above mean sea level, but provinces upstream, especially those with industrial estates, have built and increased the heights of their levees and flood walls, so the run-off will be blocked and eventually move toward Bangkok

I understand that substantial work has, in fact, been done to fortify flood defenses around some industrial estates. So it makes sense that areas farther downstream could be at risk as water is displaced.

Meanwhile, Bangkok Pundit has an extensive post today on water levels in Thailand’s various dams.

(Some say a problem in 2011 was that not enough water had been discharged from such dams earlier in the year, meaning they were largely full when the heavy rains started and could not be used to retain excess water.)

The conclusion:

Simply put, while we still need to keep an eye on heavy rainfall which can cause flash floods, we don’t have the level of water entering the river system from the North and the Central regions that we did last year. Until this happens (which BP thinks is still very unlikely for this year), the risk of severe flooding is very low.

Ultimately, water management is a complex issue. But Bangkok drainage mechanisms, coordination among agencies, and water levels in dams seem to be key components.

(Bangkok Post link via @kmorit.)

A recent New York Times story says:

KHLONG LUANG, Thailand — The floodwaters receded weeks ago from this sprawling industrial zone, but the streets are littered with detritus, the phones do not work and rusted machinery has been dumped outside warehouses that once buzzed with efficiency.

Before Thailand’s great flood of 2011, companies like Panasonic, JVC and Hitachi produced electronics and computer components that were exported around the world. Now of the 227 factories operating in the zone, only 15 percent have restarted production, according to Nipit Arunvongse Na Ayudhya, the managing director of the company that manages the Nava Nakorn industrial zone, one of the largest in Thailand and located just north of Bangkok.

“The recovery has not been that easy,” Mr. Nipit said in an interview Friday on the sidelines of a meeting where he sought to soothe anxious foreign factory managers.

The slow recovery here is having global consequences. Before the floods, Thailand produced about 40 percent to 45 percent of the world’s hard disk drives, the invaluable and ubiquitous storage devices of the digital age. It is now becoming clear that it will be months — significantly longer than initially expected — before production of hard drives returns to antediluvian levels.

(Emphasis mine.)

Worth a read.

Thanks to reader D for passing along this infographic showing the scale of Thailand’s ongoing flooding.

The graphic was created by David McCandless, of the well known data visualization site Information is Beautiful.

For a bigger image — and to see how Thailand’s flooding compares to other disasters, click through to the The Guardian’s DataBlog. The post begins:

Floods. Amazon deforestation. Earthquake destruction. Satellite maps somehow don’t always help us to fully imagine the size of these disasters. Is there a better way to visualize the scale of destruction?

Here I’ve been playing with the ranges of various natural and unnatural disasters, pulling data from various media reports and the US Geological Survey.

Just briefly: I have received emails asking for an update on the flooding situation here in Thailand. So here goes:

Summary

In short, there’s not much new to report. Waters are reportedly draining slowly from affected areas, which are generally Bangkok’s western and northern outskirts.

This Nov. 12 WSJ map shows that the parts of the city that have been hit are areas that tourists are unlikely to visit:

Phuket, Chiang Mai, Pattaya, and other parts of the country — aside from central Thailand and Ayutthaya — have not been affected.

The international airport, Suvarnabhumi, continues to function normally. Don Muang, the domestic airport, remains closed, but domestic flights are operating via Suvarnabhumi.

The BTS (Sky Train) and MRT are still fine.

Central Bangkok is still dry.

Following the flooding news

Going forward, I will only post about the floods if there are significant developments.

For more frequent updates, I suggest consulting the government’s travel information site, ThailandTourismUpdate.com.

There’s an update from yesterday (Nov. 21), for example, that provides a run-down of the situation.

And of course, you can also consult the Bangkok Post and Nation newspapers.

A Google News search for “Thailand flooding” may also be helpful.

Here’s the latest as of 7:30 p.m. today, Fri. November 18, 2011.

Note: There have been two interesting non-flooding-related developments here in Thailand and within the region recently.

First, the Thai government has reportedly discussed a pardon that could allow Thaksin to return.

And second, President Obama said today that Sec. of State Clinton will visit Myanmar next month.

These are both important stories, and I’m sure I’ll touch on them at length later. But for the time being, I will continue to focus on the flooding situation here.

Reminder: This post, like the last, will consist of links to notable news stories. I will post new maps and other images as I come across them.

For previous summaries of the flooding situation, see the Thailand flooding tag.

And as always, for more frequent updates, you can follow me on Twitter.

News reports

The WSJ‘s Southeast Asia Real Time says today:

Water levels may have receded significantly in parts of Bangkok after weeks of devastating flooding, and the number of affected provinces in the Thai capital is now just 20 compared with a high of 64. But as more than 5.3 million remain affected by the floodwaters, the crisis is far from over for the Thai kingdom. The death toll — now at 594, according to the Thai government — continues to rise steadily, with more than 60 deaths since last Thursday.

The NYT had this story yesterday about Sec. Hillary Clinton’s recent visit:

Thailand is still reeling from the Great Flood of 2011, but government officials stayed true to the country’s deeply ingrained sense of hospitality during the visit of its important guest. A large banner was strung on the facade of the evacuation center for flood victims welcoming Mrs. Clinton.

What Mrs. Clinton witnessed on Thursday was not a Potemkin village by any stretch. As she entered an air-conditioned sports complex that now serves as an evacuation center, flood victims sat on mats where they have slept every night for many weeks.

But in a land of almost instinctual deference and automatic smiles for foreign visitors, the organizers of Mrs. Clinton’s visit shielded her from a genuine encounter with the frustration and the stress felt by the tens of thousands of flood victims in the country.

Reuters said today:

Thailand’s worst floods in 50 years have hit tourism at the start of the high season, but the country has recovered quickly in the recent past from all sorts of scourges and some tour operators are hopeful a recovery might start next month.

Meanwhile, here’s a Nov. 15 travel alert from the U.S. Embassy in Bangkok:

…Floodwaters are generally receding, and the overall situation is improving. However, flooding still hampers transportation and limits access to some essential services in the affected areas.

(All emphasis mine.)

Here’s the latest as of 1 p.m. today, Wed. November 16, 2011:

Note: I have not come across any interesting new maps or images in recent days, so this post, along with future ones, may simply include links to notable news stories.

Remember that for previous summaries of the situation, maps, images, etc., see the Thailand flooding tag.

And for more frequent updates, you can follow me on Twitter.

News reports

The AP reports today:

Flood waters in Thailand’s capital are continually receding and all main streets will be dry in two weeks, authorities said Wednesday, providing long-overdue good news after months of inundation that have killed 564 people nationwide.

Also Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton will announce a “substantial” aid package when she arrives on a hastily arranged trip to express solidarity, officials said.

A New York Times story from yesterday says:

Troops and army trucks are rolling through the streets of Bangkok again. But this time it is not to battle protesters or overthrow a prime minister.

Instead, they are ferrying residents around the city on heavy-duty military vehicles that can get through its flooded streets, with banners on each one reading “Royal Thai Army helping the people.”

In a country deeply divided over the military’s role in civilian life, Thailand’s top generals have used the floods, the worst the country has had in decades, as an opportunity to showcase the army’s friendlier side.

The WSJ‘s Southeast Asia Real Time reports:

Thailand’s transport authorities have a fresh flood problem — people are putting metal spikes on submerged roads.

In some parts of the country, unknown persons have placed spikes on the road in an apparent bid to puncture vehicle tires and prevent buses and supply trucks getting in and out of affected areas. Some officials suspect profiteers selling basic goods at inflated prices are to blame as they try to prevent relief efforts getting to badly affected areas. Others say boat operators might be sabotaging the relief effort because the arrival of trucks in flooded areas threatens their business.

And finally, for a glimpse at the lighter side of the Thai floods, check out the Thai Flood Hacks site, which showcases innovations like animal flotation devices and improvised boats.

Related AP story:

Flooded out but still want to make a fashion statement? Try these lime green rubber boots. Feeling stir crazy with the fetid waters surrounding your home? How about special snorkels to keep your car running in high water – or a jet ski to navigate submerged streets?

In Bangkok, a tireless Asian mega-city never shy about making a buck, an ongoing flood disaster has provided plenty of opportunity for business ingenuity to flourish.

(All emphasis mine.)