Bolivians are voting for a new president today.
I haven’t been able to find any news on how the voting has shaped up so far, but the best analysis I’ve seen is from Bolivia expert Miguel Centellas, who says Evo Morales is set to win — but may ultimately be hamstrung by a lack of support in Congress:
And an Evo presidency, facing an opposition-controlled Senate & House of Deputies, and w/ none of the prefects under his control, will be the most heavily restricted presidency in Bolivia’s democratic history.
Bolivia, Evo+Morales
Will this indigenous man — a former coca farmer — be the next president of Bolivia? No one knows for sure. The election is on Sunday.
According to the NYT’s Juan Forero, coca-legalization proponent and indigenous coalition leader Evo Morales just might become the next president of Bolivia.
The election of Morales in Bolivia would represent the triumph of indigenous groups over the minority white elite ruling class — as well as the rejection of what’s viewed as American imperialism and the encroachment of globalization on poor people’s lives throughout the southern Andes.
This monumental shift, should it reach fruition, would mirror the central thesis of Amy Chua’s prescient tome “World On Fire”: that the world’s so-called “market-dominant minorities” — the wealthy whites, in the case of Bolivia — become enriched by globalization while the poor majority indigenous population becomes increasingly destitute and disenfranchised. Class tensions, in this scenario, are exacerbated; violence erupts.
The ascent of Morales in Bolivia, if it happens, may signal a sea change in Andean politics. Only time will tell; could Peru and Ecuador, which also have sizeable Indian populations, be next?
Watching America has the translation of an article from Spain about developing ties between the US and Paraguy. Interesting passage:
This was admitted by the vice president himself, who said that Secretary Rumsfeld was worried about the situation in the zone. “… We also spoke of countries closer to us in the region; they (the Americans) are quite worried about the instability of governments like Ecuador, that is on its seventh president in nine years, or Bolivia, which remains unstable, and the same with Brazil, which at the moment is experiencing great political upheaval.
“In comparison, Paraguay is an area where one sees strong political stability, governability and institutional strength…
(Via RobotWisdom.)
Paraguay
Thanks to a link from the excellent Global Voices Online, my post about Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, and Foreign Policy’s Failed States Index Map has attracted interesting comments from bloggers boz and Miguel A. Buitrago.
Boz agrees that the Index was flawed; he says the evaluators “tried too hard to rank all states on some common standard, and managed to fail a common sense test.” And Miguel points out some pages on the FP site that list the criteria they used in their rankings.
Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Foreign+Policy
I'm Newley Purnell, an American journalist in Bangkok. I report for Bloomberg BNA, ABC News Radio, The Chronicle of Higher Education, and more.