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Thai politics Thailand

My new GlobalPost story: What comes next for Thailand?

You can read it here.

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Thai politics

More on the Thailand election

2011 07 05 elex

Assorted Thailand election-related links:

The New York Times notes the army’s reaction to the Pheu Thai victory:

Thailand’s politically powerful military offered a reassurance Monday that it would not challenge the election of a party controlled by the fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whom it deposed in a coup five years ago.

The Bangkok Post, in an editorial on Yingluck and the new government’s priorities, says:

On the campaign trail she always had two subjects at hand. The economy and national reconciliation are doubtless the most important topics for the nation, and the soon-to-be prime minister Yingluck will have to take decisive measures on both.

The official MCOT news agency has the details on what will be Pheu Thai’s coalition:

The five parties to form the new government are Pheu Thai, the Chartthaipattana party, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin, Palang Chon and Mahachon with 299 seats in total, Ms Yingluck, who is set to become Thailand’s first female prime minister, told a press conference at the SC Park Hotel.

The Bangkok Post says that according to a source, Pheu Thai:

…will use its numbers in the House of Representatives to ensure smooth passage of legislation to grant amnesty for Thaksin’s 2008 corruption conviction, which would enable him to come home

Would that lead to trouble?

And finally, 2Bangkok.com has some scans of Thai newspaper headlines featuring the election result.

Image: Bangkok Post.

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Thai politics

Yingluck: top story on Drudge Report

A screen grab of what is currently the top story on Drudge Report:

2011 07 04 drudge

The Reuters story Drudge links to begins:

After six prime ministers in six years of sometimes bloody political upheaval, Thais might be excused for shrugging their shoulders about voting in number seven.

But this time there’s one big difference. The new prime minister will be a woman, the first to hold the position in Thailand.

(Via @TheThaiReport.)

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Thai politics

Chuwit wins

Just briefly, I wanted to add that that Chuvit Kamolvisit, the subject of my recent story, has won.

The Bangkok Post notes that “Mr Chuwit was poised to win four seats at press time last night.

And the Nation says:

The 50-year-old politician said his political campaign had succeeded because most voters are bored with the two main parties and wanted him to investigate and monitor corruption.

So there you have it.

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Thai politics

Pheu Thai wins Thailand election: news round-up

2011 07 04 thai elex papers

Some stories that have caught my eye today:

The Economist says that the result is “a smack in the face for the army chief, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who urged voters on June 14th not to elect “the same people” to run the country and lambasted the red shirts as anti-monarchists.” And:

It is hard to see how General Prayuth, who commanded troops in the 2006 coup, could get along with a PT-led government that includes abrasive red-shirt leaders such as Nattawut Saikua, who has been charged with terrorism. But Phongthep Thepkanjana, an adviser to the party and a former minister, brushes off the implied threat. General Prayuth “is one in 65m”, he says. The election result “is the resolution of the people.”

The New York Times notes that the election “could turn Thai politics on its head and roll back the results of a coup that ousted Mr. Thaksin almost five years ago.” And:

“This is a slap in the face to the establishment for what they’ve done since the military coup in 2006,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University. “This is a new Thailand that they must learn to live with.”

He added: “This whole election is all about the awakened voices. These people discovered that they can actually have access and be connected to the system.”

An editorial in the WSJ argues that mass politics has arrived in Thailand, and “robust institutions” are needed:

As this election showed, Thailand has irrevocably reached the stage where it will be governed by mass parties. Creating the checks and balances to manage that political competition has become the most urgent task.

And on the WSJ’s Exchange blog, financial analysts comment on the election’s potential implications. From the intro:

In the run-up to the election, investors dumped Thai shares, but according to some early indicators, sentiment is positive. The benchmark SET index is up more than 3% at Monday’s open, the baht is surging and spreads on Thai credit default swaps are tighter.

Elsewhere, the Nation provides this graphic detailing the breakdown of the vote. Red is Pheu Thai, and blue is for the Democrat Party.

2011 07 04 nation graphic

Graphic: Nation, via @Mr_Pradit on Twitpic.

Image at top of post: A pic of today’s WSJ and IHT front pages.

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Thai politics

Thailand election: liveblogging the results

Note: I’ll use this post for updates as the vote count comes in…

Final update: 11:00 p.m.:

I’m wrapping things up for the evening. Before I go, here a few thoughts to ponder:

The results of the election are clear. According to Thailand’s Election Commission, as reported by AP, Pheu Thai will likely end up with approximately 260 seats in Parliament, enough to ensure a majority and form a government.

What now?

There has been much discussion, in the past, about whether or not the army would accept another Thaksin friendly government.

Thai political pundits, in discussions on TV tonight, have referred to amnesty for Thaksin as a non-starter.

There’s no telling what could happen, they’ve said, if the exiled billionaire returns to Thailand.

But would Pheu Thai really push for amnesty?

We shall see what the weeks ahead hold in store.

In the meantime, here are a few news stories to chew on:

The WSJ notes that Abhisit has conceded, and raises some questions about the future:

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva Sunday admitted defeat in Thailand’s national election, and said his Democrat Party would cooperate with the new government to be formed by the For Thais Party, which is headed by the sister of exiled former leader Thaksin Shinawatra.

Reuters says:

After six prime ministers in six years of sometimes bloody political upheaval, Thais might be excused for shrugging their shoulders about voting in number seven.

But this time there’s one big difference. The new prime minister will be a woman, the first to hold the position in Thailand.

The FT provides some analysis on Yingluck:

Yingluck Shinawatra, who is poised to become Thailand’s first female prime minister, is a former businesswoman and political neophyte who has struggled to escape the long shadow of her brother.

That’s it for now. Good night.

Update: 9:05 p.m.

Al Jazeera English’s Wayne Hay tweets:

2011 07 03 tweet

Previous post with more info on rumors about a “grand bargain” is here.

Update: 8:10 p.m.

I just tweeted the following:

Yingluck takes question in English. Says will focus first on economic issues. Wais to crowd, says thanks, and is off.

Yingluck presser on TV. http://campl.us/ccld

Yingluck: hopes other parties, like Chart Thai, will join in a coalition. EC has 30 days to certify results & could be red cards.

But Yingluck says wants to wait for official results. This is not PT victory but victory for country. Will focus on reconciliation.

Yingluck on TV: thanks for support, both domestic and overseas. Thanks to other parties for peaceful election…

If election result stands, how will biz community feel about PT’s pledge to raise minimum wage 40 percent?

ASEAN TV: Phue Thai at 255. Dems at 162. PT would have majority.

On TV, Abhisit: Dems will be opposition party. Concedes defeat and says he hopes Yingluck will be Thailand’s first female PM.

Update: 7:40 p.m. Bangkok time:

Journalists are awaiting a speech by Yingluck. ABC Australia’s Zoe Daniel (@seacorro) tweets this photo:

2011 07 03 yingluck presser

Image: Zoe Daniel.

7:30 p.m. Bangkok time:

It looks like the Pheu Thai will still form a majority, but it may not be a “landslide.”

The Nation says:

After the vote count has been done by 48 per cent, the Pheu Thai Party appeared to win 255 MPs.

The Democrat came second with wining 164 MPs according to the count by the Royal Thai Police and EC as of 6:13 pm.

Bangkok Pundit, where you can also find frequent updates, quotes Kom Chad Luek as saying here’s how the numbers currently stand:

Pheu Thai have 254 seats, while the Democrats are at 164.

Stay tuned…

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Thai politics

Exit polls: Pheu Thai wins in a landslide

AP says:

The opposition party allied to ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was poised for landslide victory Sunday in fractious Thailand’s elections, easily garnering the majority needed to form a new government, according to two respected exit polls.
The Election Commission has yet to release results, but is expected to do so later Sunday.

I’ve been Tweeting observations and photos.

More soon…

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Journalism Thai politics

My GlobalPost story on Chuvit’s anti-corruption crusade

Just briefly: Here’s a story I did for GlobalPost about Chuvit Kamolvisit, whose campaign posters are surely familiar to Bangkok residents.

In an interview, the former “King of Commercial Sex” discussed not just his fight against corruption, but he also touched on Abhisit, Thaksin, Yingluck, and more.

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Thai politics Thailand

Thailand election: and we’re off

Voting in Thailand’s first national election since 2007 kicked off this morning.

The New York Times describes the vote this way:

Thais were voting Sunday in a hotly contested election that will open the next stage in the country’s long-running power struggle between the fugitive former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the entrenched political and social establishment that supported a coup that drove him from office more than five years ago.

Meanwhile, here’s an overview of the voting from Al Jazeera English. Video embedded below and available on YouTube.

Elsewhere, Reuters relates a lighthearted moment:

A Thai television presenter asked Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva if this would be the last time he would be interviewing him as prime minister.

Abhisit replied: “Why? Are you quitting journalism?”

It was a brave show of confidence ahead of Sunday’s election by the urbane, Oxford-educated economist who also goes under the birth name of “Mark.”

As a reminder, here’s my roundup of resources for following the election online.

For timely tidbits, I suggest my Bangkok journalists and media-types Twitter list, as well as my general Thailand Twitter list.

Stay tuned…

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Thai politics

Thailand election: By the numbers

Here’s a graphic, via Thailand’s Election Commission, that the Bangkok Post ran with a Thitinan Pongsudhirak column yesterday. The piece begins:

No one haunts and hovers over Thailand’s political landscape like Thaksin Shinawatra.

2011 07 02 thai elex

Image: Bangkok Post.