Mike A. is another gringo friend of mine who knows a lot about Ecuador. I lived with him briefly duing his year in Cuenca. He writes:
“I was surprised to see [Lucio’s ouster] happen when it did, but I’d imagine that Febres Cordero and/or (likely and) Nebot cut a deal with Palacios or believed that they could more easily control Palacios than Gutierrez. My guess is that the latter is more likely – although Gutierrez lacked any significant political base, he showed a bit of audacity in his willingness to challenge (if only verbally) entrenched interests (parties), and given the opportunity to remove him, entrenched interests shrugged their shoulders and said “why not?” As I mentioned before, I don’t think it’s shocking that it happened – I remember the street over/under on Lucio’s time in office being measured in months from when I was there for the election. I’m just surprised that it wasn’t more dramatic than it was. Maybe Ecuadorian politics are becoming more civilized – but I expected something more along the lines of the mass protests that first led Lucio to a taste of power …”