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More on Ecuador’s Gutierrez

Following my speculation that Ecuadorian president Lucio Gutierrez will soon be booted from office, and following my buddy Mike F.‘s thoughts that Lucio’s fine for now, here’s what my friend Jordan L. has to say.

Jordan’s an American who lived in Ecuador for three years; he and I were once roommates in Cuenca. He’s seen Ecuadorian presidents come and go, and I often say he knows more about that small Andean nation than any gringo I know. I asked him to weigh in on the matter, and here’s his response:

First off, I admire your courage. Talking about Ecuadorian politics is like pissing in the wind–and believe me when I say I’ve inadvertently urinated on myself more than a few times amidst gusty Andean gales. Never the less, I will try once more to plow the sea of public debate in response to your question: “Lucio–on his way out?”

Nothing is likely to happen to Lucio until leaders within the Social Christian, Democratic Left, and Popular Democratic Parties decide that it would be advantageous to remove him from power. For now Lucio’s own Patriotic Society Party is practically dissolved, leaving him completely vulnerable to the entrenched political classes. If you’re Febres Cordero (SC: head of congress) or Jaime Nebot (SC: Mayor of Guayaquil), that’s not a bad position to have your rebel president in. Lucio is essentially a puppet of traditional power at this point and it’s not entirely clear when he’ll be moved out. That’s why his approval rating can be so low but nothing seems to happen. Toledo has been in the same position in Peru for six months now. But rest assured, Lucio’s days are numbered. For now I think it’s better to have him inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in.

If one thing is clear, it’s that no one has a clue as to who could take Lucio’s place. Frankly, nobody wants the job. Being president of Ecuador is akin to political suicide–and it’s systemic. After Bucaram was voted out in 1998 congress amended the
constitution and replaced Rosalia (VP) with Alarcon, then president of the congress. Alarcon promptly made several reforms that consolidated power in the executive branch and likewise made it extremely hard to remove a sitting president by legal means. The
reforms also gave the president more control over the budget at a time when state revenues were dwindling (read: neoliberalism). So any president has to do more with less and will surely get blamed for the outcome, as Lucio is finding out the hard way.

So there you have it, folks. Thank you, Jordan and Mike, for your incisive opinions on the topic. I haven’t been this proud of Newley.com since our global warming debate back in December.

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